How do YOU calculate GPU Mining profitability?

Hi,

I see a lot of people asking about mining profitability and they usually get pointed to sites like http://whattomine.com

I'm a GPU miner and so this is a question I have to answer for myself too.

On the face of it, it looks like you can just use a site like that and put in your hash power and voila! you know what you will make.

Of course - the devil is in the details and it's not as simple as that.

For example - what you're mining is just the first part of what profit you will make.

With any crypto - the actual 'value' is only really relevant at the point where you convert that into cash in your bank/hand - or spend it with a retailer that accepts that coin.

So, let's say you're mining Monero, just because you went to whattomine.com one day and it told you that was the most profitable:

How are you going to spend that Monero?

Are you planning to keep it and wait for it to go up?

Are you going to swap it for some other crypto?

When will you cash it out or spend it?

If you mine $1000 of Monero today and then tomorrow it tanks you could only have $500 worth. So - do you then hold it and hope it goes back up?

Does that mean that if you'd mined something else which went up - that you actually made the wrong choice to mine what appeared most profitable on the day?

And of course - every day is different as the cryptos change continuously. So you might think "I'll mine Zcash as the calculator reckons I can make $1000 this month" - but then 3 days later it goes down again - so you actually mined $100 of it, but it's now only worth $35.

So - these numbers look like an easy way to tell what 'profit' you can make - but in reality until you've actually mined it AND cashed it out or spent it - they're a VERY loose guide at best.

So - how do YOU decide which Crypto will be profitable for you?