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RE: The DAO will not be DOA, but that doesn’t make it a good investment
I would like to add further to your observations . 86.7% of the DAO is held by 10%, which pretty much unwinds most of his argument, regarding 20% participation,and voting proposals. I'd also like to point out, no risk ,no reward. You can analyze something to death. Sometimes you have to try, and make your best educated guess based on the facts given. The rest is your gut feeling, and a little luck. Don't be shortsighted, and miss the next big thing. Most things in nature don't move like this. Paraphrasing Jeff Bazos talking about the internet pre Amazon.
https://etherscan.io/token/thedao-token-chart?range=1824
It also unwinds most of the argument for decentralization. Effectively, people are minority partners with the DAO whales. It also highlights that most of what was invested as paper profits of ETH whales and not true outside investment from a real crowd funding campaign.
I think having more than 1800+ voting members qualify's as decentralized. I also don't necessarily think having my interest aligned with someone, as awhale is a bad thing. Warren Buffet comes to mind, if they have that amount of money, and are investing in this space. You could say that level of astuteness, acumen,due diligence whatever you want to call it is needed for this VC type project . The old phrase birds of a feather hang together. Want to be a millionaire hang with one, or follow the money.
The top 50 individual wallets (could be fewer individuals or groups) hold almost 40%. It remains to be seen what voting patterns emerge in practice but if those 50 tend to vote as a bloc that is nearly 100% voting power.
Do you know how is that compared to bitshares? What percantage of BTS holders can control the voting?