Well... there is no way to sugar coat this... I got completely train wrecked by the sudden Bitcoin (BTC) surge in June... so, it wasn't a great month of predictions in the crypto markets for me!

Crypto markets

The surge in Bitcoin completely smashed the altcoins in their value against the premier cryptocurrency, sending pretty much all of them into a tailspin against Bitcoin. I had expected the sudden surge to abate and then return to equilibrium as some of the Bitcoin surge would flow out to the altcoins. However, the surge continued in Bitcoin (reaching a much larger market share than I had expected, and one that we haven't seen for quite some time...) which meant that the altcoins kept plumetting...

So, it was a month of missed predictions as all the binary questions kept failing... and all the range bound questions were completely out on the low end... I finished the month with a very very negative score... which meant that I received no payout for this month, which is something that hasn't happened for quite a long time!

However, something that was more problematic was the drop in overall (lifetime) accuracy to below 60% (I'm now sitting at 58%), which will affect my eligibility for the invite only PRO leagues... POOP! So, I've got to work on building these metrics back up again to recover my super forecaster label in the crypto markets!

Traditional Markets

In stark contrast, I was hitting good targets in the traditional markets.. despite the fact that there were some really "interesting" world events, like the events between Iran and the United States (drones and the oil tankers) and the ongoing trade escalation between China and the United States. I was making better use (and better understanding) of the Bollinger Bands to assist in my predictions... however, I'm not sure if it is useful as a long term tool, but it is something that I'm testing out in the last month.

I was pretty off with my Oil and Gold Futures range questions though... something that I really need to improve upon, to pick up extra accuracy and points each week.

Finishing with a good score and an easy top 200 placing... with a rating for the month of over 66% accuracy! I'm pretty happy about that... but I'm all too aware that it only takes one bad month to bring it all down to earth.... or under!

PRO Leagues

The Crypto PRO League 3 went the same way as the main crypto market predictions... tanking completely out. I had thought that it was going to be easy money... but in the end, I was wiped out. However, it appears that I wasn't the only one that got smashed... I was negative, and yet finished in the top 100...

The Ranking PRO 3 was interesting. These were daily ranking questions for the week ahead in the traditional stock markets, under the new scoring system. Unfortunately, any success I had were generally small points, whilst errors tended to lose me much more... so whilst my accuracy was decent, the end points was negative... so, no big payout from this League either. However, it was a useful confirmation that I should steer clear of the ranking questions in the main crypto/traditional markets. The risk just isn't worth it!

The Month Ahead

Well... I've said this before and got walloped in the month... but I still thing that the alts are going to re-correct against Bitcoin. Let's see how that plays out! Meanwhile, in the traditional markets, I'm a bit wary... the ongoing trade war, and the tensions with Iran and North Korea... unpredictable President of the United States... add in a general consensus that we are headed for a big recession. Well, no of this bodes well for the predictability of the markets. At the moment, they are going up... but there is talk that this is just fool's gold. Dangerous month ahead for forecasters!

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