Time to Get Nerdy Again
The latest batch (haha) of data from the Brewers Association is now available...and of course, I had to dig in! Overall, I would say that the news is rather somber compared to the frothy and the "ye can do nothing wrong" years (2010 - 2015). During those "frothy times" (oh stop with the puns) average barrel growth for U.S. Domestic Craft brewers was approx. 16.0%. The past two years we have seen much lower barrel growth, 6 and 5% in 2016 and 2017 respectively. Oh no is the end near!? Absolutely not! Much of the slowdown is attributable to the regional craft brewers. Those brewers that produce between 15,000 and 6,000,000 barrels annually (wow that is a wide range, you can drive a beer delivery truck through it).
Much of the dichotomy in the market is a reflection of the consumers preference for local brands and a local experience. I believe this trend will continue as the millennial crowd continues to dismiss and distrust the current globalist, uber capitalist framework that the western world created and operates in. This generation will continue to reach for brands/products that are more local, organic and less "evil" and will embrace the local, smiling bearded craftsman as they can see him happily working away at creating their favorite libations.
Alright, here we go! If we strip out the big boys and stick to CO, here are what the numbers look like (I have awesome pictures too):
- Barrelage increased on average 55.0% to a total of approx. 243,000
- The mean growth for CO from 2013 - 2017 is 26%
- Standard deviation of barrels produced in 2017 is 7,750 which is within the 20-40% range meaning that the range is comparatively narrow meaning we have a lot of smaller breweries (the happy bearded local brewer)
- CO breweries in the 1st quartile (0-150 barrels) grew 6.2% in 2017
- CO breweries in the 2nd quartile (151 - 430 barrels) grew 6.5% in 2017
- CO breweries in the 3rd quartile (431 - 1,363 barrels) grew 9.8% in 2017 (this is where Pyth will be)
- CO breweries in the 4th quartile (1,364 - 12,700 barrels) grew 7.3%
While slowing, growth rates are still pretty impressive given the massive amounts of breweries coming on line in the past few years.
Pyth Brewing Company will be right in the sweet spot in terms of barrel production!
BTW...look for some exciting updates from us very shortly!
Cheers!
Joshua