Seroprevalence in the US, antibodies from infection vs vaccinations.

I give you two maps. On the left, we have a map showing frequency of anti-nucleocapsid antibodies, which can only come from infection, not vaccination. On the right, we have a map showing vaccine coverage. Unsurprisingly, there appears to be an inverse correlation between vaccinations and infections. Most of those infections happened before vaccines were widely available, so I suspect that most of this is sociological. But whatever the cause, it tends to level out the immunity. Places that have lower vaccination rates tend to have higher rates of immunity from infection. Overall, we are probably getting close to herd immunity, at least for the variants in the US right now and in most places. Getting to herd immunity doesn't mean that the pandemic will suddenly be over, just that cases won't suddenly spike upwards if people start interacting more in person without masks.

I have been carrying a mask with me, but only wearing it if the store that I'm visiting requests it. So far the post office and Hobby Lobby are still asking people to wear masks, and Walmart and Kroger are not. I wouldn't be quite so confident if I hadn't checked to make sure that I have reasonable levels of antibodies. I'm also not working in public, so I have less exposure to crowds than someone working retail. I would also not feel comfortable going out maskless if I knew that I had an exposure to someone with covid. In that case, I would either refrain from going out, or if I really needed to, wear an N95 mask (which are once again available at Lowes if you want one).

I know that there are a lot of people out there stressing because they know that some unvaccinated people are taking advantage of the new rules and going maskless. But if you are vaccinated and know that you have good levels of antibodies, it's very unlikely that you will catch it, and if you do catch it, it's unlikely to be severe. If you can't make antibodies or have close contact with someone in that situation, wearing a well-fitted N95 in public is more protective than if both you and a potential transmitter of virus are both wearing cloth masks.

We will eventually get to the point, either through vaccinations or infections, where the amount of virus going around is very low. It might not ever get to zero, and it will probably take more time than we'd like. But we will get there.

Infections as measured through antibodies to nucleoprotein:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab

Vaccines:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution