Cancel your New Year's party.

Yes, I'm talking to you.

Unless it's a small gathering and everybody rapid-tests an hour before, seriously, cancel it.

If you're boosted or double-vaxxed with an infection "booster", Omicron almost certainly won't put you in the hospital. But with infection numbers already higher than last holiday's peak, we risk a couple months of utterly overwhelmed hospitals across the country. Don't be a part of the spread just because it won't kill you.

Look at this chart. Last year, the Christmas holiday, as expected, caused a crater in the case counts. When things got back to normal around Jan 8, cases had climbed 40% from their post-holiday low. Note also that the wave began in October and took 3 months to peak in January.

This year, the Omicron surge kept numbers climbing through the holiday valley. The "record high" numbers we're seeing now are badly underestimating the real count. Over the next 10 days, we'll see the rebound from the holiday slowdown in testing and reporting added to the unbelievable case growth from Omicron. I think we're all but guaranteed to DOUBLE last year's holiday peak.

Yes, Omicron sends a smaller percentage of people to the hospital, but most of that is because so many of the infected are vaccinated. Unvaxxed people are going to be hit hard by this, and the Omicron hospitalizations are on top of our still-high Delta numbers.

With a bit of luck, this will peak in January and start coming down sharply by February, but the US curve may be wider than other countries. (More unvaxxed, fewer booster, and a huge variation in start times for the Omicron wave in different states.)