Coronavirus summary update 21/04/2020

https://www.winknews.com/2020/03/03/third-presumptive-case-of-the-new-coron

20/04/2020

Confirmed cases = 2,404,071 (+3.1% from 19/04/2020)
Deaths = 165,229 (6.87%) (+2.73% from 19/04/2020)
Recovery = 624,698 (25.98%) (+4.71% from 19/04/2020)

Active cases = 1,614,144 (+2.51% from 19/04/2020)

Projected deaths = 110,891
Projected recovery = 419,354

Expected recovery rate = 1,044,052 (+4.47% from 19/04/2020)
Expected deaths = 276,120 (1 in 8) (+2.52% from 19/04/2020)

https://www.itij.com/latest/news/first-coronavirus-death-recorded-outside-china

21/04/2020

Confirmed cases = 2,478,153 (+2.98% from 20/04/2020)
Deaths = 170,368 (6.87%) (+3.01% from 20/04/2020)
Recovery = 647,632 (26.13%) (+3.54% from 20/04/2020)

Active cases = 1,660,153 (+2.77% from 20/04/2020)

Projected deaths = 114,052
Projected recovery = 433,797

Expected recovery rate = 1,081,429 (+3.45% from 20/04/2020)
Expected deaths = 284,420 (1 in 8) (+2.91% from 20/04/2020)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/health/coronavirus-testing-california.html

UK Data

20/04/2020

Confirmed cases = 121,173 (+4.83 from 19/04/2020)
Deaths = 16,060 (13.25%) (+3.71% from 19/04/2020)
Recovery = 437 (0.36%) (+5.26% from 19/04/2020)

Active cases = 104,676

Projected deaths = 13,869
Projected recovery = 376

Expected recovery rate = 813 (+6.27% from 19/04/2020)
Expected deaths = 29,929 (1 in 4) (+3.77% from 19/04/2020)

https://tgihealthcareerp.com/health-news/coronavirus-latest-which-areas-of-the-

21/04/2020

Confirmed cases = 125,856 (+3.72% from 20/04/2020)
Deaths = 16,509 (13.11%)
Recovery = 446 (0.35%)

Active cases = 108,901 (+3.87% from 20/04/2020)

Projected deaths = 14,276
Projected recovery = 381

Expected recovery rate = 827 (+1.69% from 20/04/2020)
Expected deaths = 30,785 (1 in 4) (+2.78% from 20/04/2020)

https://www.pristyncare.com/blog/covid-19-comparison-of-coronavirus-to-past-out

Comparing COVID-19 to the Seasonal Winter Flu

Comparing the seasonal flu to the COVID-19 virus death rate i.e. as of 20/04/2020 = 170,368 has shown that COVID-19 is still not even close to being as problematic as seasonal flu i.e. the COVID-19 virus death rate is 41.25% lower than 2019 seasonal flu deaths. And this is working from the lowest value i.e. 290,000 in the range. The range for seasonal flu being between 290,000 - 650,000 deaths every year from seasonal flu. However, taking the range between the two values i.e. 290,000 - 650,000 = 360,000 deaths EVERY YEAR then the mortality rate for COVID-19 in comparison to every season Winter flu drops to 52.67% below every SEASONAL WINTER FLU since 1935. And, if you calculate the percentage i.e. 646,000 deaths from Seasonal flu each year then the COVID-19 deaths pale in comparison i.e. 73.62% below Seasonal flu. So, it is not as big a problem as predicted.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-symptoms-compared-to-flu-com

STOP THE LOCKDOWN - UK Hospital data and confirmed cases

There are 1,257 hospitals in the UK. That means;

cc = 125,856 / H-in-UK = 1,257 = 100 patients per hospital (pph).

However, the estimated percentage of at-risk groups and those over 55 is around 37.1%. Therefore:

100pph / 100 * 37.1 = 37pph

The rest i.e. 63 of these will be either isolated at home, only have mild symptoms that are short lived, be immune (estimated 80% immunity rate – based on 1.2 million tests in the U.S.A) or – like the rest of us - asymptomatic. So, how full are the or hospitals? And with nurses and doctors now uploading dance routines to TIK-TOK (Own by the Chinese Communist Party BTW) and You Tube it demonstrates:

The virus is not that problematic
We can all go back to work if hospitals are not overwhelmed
We shouldn't be cheering for dance routines and boredom
We were lied too right from the beginning

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-many-cases-are-there-where-you-l

2018 - 2019 UK Influenza data

Syndromic surveillance indicators peaked around a similar time for GP in hours ILI consultations (week 06; 2019) and GP out-of-hours ILI consultations (week 05; 2019) at 17.4 per 100,000 (i.e. 3,851,149 confirmed cases) population and 0.68% of consultations respectively. And, considering this is the data for the UK, as you may be aware, there are not this many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world i.e. 20/04/2020; Confirmed cases = 2,404,071. So, is it really a problem?

https://speakingaboutnews.com/cdc-coronavirus-disease-outbreak-covid-19-situati

21-day summary report

This 21-day report was performed to illustrate that, not only are the confirmed Coronavirus cases decreasing i.e. +9.14% - +2,98% and the rate of recovery increasing i.e. 20.74% - 26.13%, and it is dissipating at a rate consistent with every Seasonal Flu since 1935. Unfortunately, the death rate has increased +4.9% - +6.87%, but this – once again – is consistent with the number of new confirmed cases and infected at-risk groups.

Therefore, as predicted, the decline in COVID-19 is going to become apparent by the end of April/beginning of May 2020. And, that the virus will be gone by the 2/3 week of May 2020.

https://www.stickboybkk.com/news/looking-for-a-flight-to-the-uk/

Flights in to the UK from Hotspots

LHR

VS 207 Virgin Atlantic (HKG) Hong Kong 5:30 AM Landed
AA 50 American Airlines (DFW) Dallas 6:55 AM En Route
AY 5780 ^ Finnair (DFW) Dallas 6:55 AM En Route
BA 1505 ^ British Airways (DFW) Dallas 6:55 AM En Route
GF 6650 ^ Gulf Air (DFW) Dallas 6:55 AM En Route
IB 4192 ^ Iberia (DFW) Dallas 6:55 AM En Route
LY 8028 ^ El Al (DFW) Dallas 6:55 AM En Route
AA 6135 ^ American Airlines (JFK) New York 8:20 AM En Route
AY 5514 ^ Finnair (JFK) New York 8:20 AM En Route
VS 10 Virgin Atlantic (JFK) New York 8:40 AM En Route
AF 6759 ^ Air France (JFK) New York 8:40 AM En Route
AM 7669 ^ Aeromexico (JFK) New York 8:40 AM En Route
DL 4377 ^ Delta Air Lines (JFK) New York 8:40 AM En Route
SQ 2510 ^ Singapore Airlines (JFK) New York 8:40 AM En Route
LH 900 Lufthansa (FRA) Frankfurt 8:40 AM Scheduled
BA 282 British Airways (LAX) Los Angeles 10:10 AM En Route
AA 6185 ^ American Airlines (LAX) Los Angeles 10:10 AM En Route
AY 5522 ^ Finnair (LAX) Los Angeles 10:10 AM En Route
EI 8982 ^ Aer Lingus (LAX) Los Angeles 10:10 AM En Route
IB 7440 ^ Iberia (LAX) Los Angeles 10:10 AM En Route
AZ 202 Alitalia (FCO) Rome 11:25 AM Scheduled
EW 9464 Eurowings (DUS) Dusseldorf 11:30 AM Scheduled
BA 309 British Airways (CDG) Paris 12:30 PM Scheduled
UA 2800 United Airlines (LAX) Los Angeles 2:40 PM En Route
LH 908 Lufthansa (FRA) Frankfurt 2:40 PM Scheduled
OU 5486 ^ Croatia Airlines (FRA) Frankfurt 2:40 PM Scheduled
UA 9100 ^ United Airlines (FRA) Frankfurt 2:40 PM Scheduled
BT 5630 Air Baltic (LIN) Milan 3:15 PM Scheduled
AZ 204 Alitalia (FCO) Rome 4:05 PM Scheduled
CZ 7365 ^ China Southern Airlines (FCO) Rome 4:05 PM Scheduled
FB 1705 ^ Bulgaria Air (FCO) Rome 4:05 PM Scheduled
HU 8667 ^ Hainan Airlines (FCO) Rome 4:05 PM Scheduled
AZ 208 Alitalia (FCO) Rome 7:10 PM Scheduled