COP24 - fourth in a series of reflections on the most important global conversation happening right now

kiligirl (66)in #cop24 • 6 years ago

Today, on the fourth day we reflect on what's happening in Katowice at COP24 (the 24th Conference of the Parties), it's time to trot out some background science, then take a look at some of the highlights of the previous days. And yes, young people showing leadership is once again a theme.

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Recent background science

Two recent key reports have made the hair of most rational people stand on end:

"Global Warming of 1.5°C", a Special Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

This report forms the backdrop to all the conversations at COP24, says Euractiv. The report was launched in South Korea in early October of this year, and has been described as "'seriously alarming' but surprisingly hopeful," according to a BBC report just after the launch.

The participants have had time to study it and absorb its key messages, which are that the consequences of going above the 1.5°C limit will be dire for humanity and our natural world...but that it is possible to reach the target. That's why the participants are so focused on getting agreement around the Paris Agreement, and negotiating the so-called "Rule Book" around its implementation.

Here's an extract, showing what the authors prosaically term "Reasons for Concern":

Put another way, it looks like this:

Image source

The National Climate Assessment, (NCA) prepared by a team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee.

The report was extensively reviewed by the public and experts, including federal agencies and a panel of the National Academy of Sciences.

This report that put the proverbial cat among the pigeons, because it was issued by the US Government in direct contradiction to current belief statements coming from the US President.

Here's their introductory salvo:

Evidence for changes in Earth’s climate can be found from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. Researchers from around the world have compiled this evidence using satellites, weather balloons, thermometers at surface stations, and many other types of observing systems that monitor the Earth’s weather and climate. The sum total of this evidence tells an unambiguous story: the planet is warming. NCA

NCA report introductionImage source

Most media chose to focus on the historic cost to the American economy of climate change related events. Before the NCA got to costs, though, they had to deal with the basics, as summarised here:

Many independent lines of evidence demonstrate that the world is warming and that human activity is the primary cause. Other changes flow from this warming, including melting of snow and ice, rising sea level, and increases in some types of extreme weather, such as extreme heat and heavy downpours. How much climate change we will experience in the future depends largely on the global emissions pathway.NCA

Some high/lowlights from Katowice

So given that overwhelming scientific support for the basis of the Paris Agreement and the focus on getting its Rule Book in place at COP24 in Katowice, let's have a look at some highlights and lowlights from the proceedings there the last couple of days.

Negotiations continue apace

I got a bit nonplussed when the feedback from negotiations two days ago was that much attention was being spent on open brackets - yes, these things "[]". I won't try to explain it, but apparently it's a thing in the negotiations.

Yesterday's negotiations were reportedly more substantive, focusing very much on developing the Paris Agreement Rule Book for implementation. It sounds like there is consensus on the importance of having real targets and real pressure to achieve them...but there are still days to go, and we'll only discover at the end of COP24 whether the experts come up with a mechanism with teeth.

Hosting the conference in the heart of European coal country is also a thing

One of the critical subtexts, which I mentioned in a previous post, is that this COP is being hosted in the heart of European coal country. Despite the obvious economic pressures on the host government, Poland, to maintain a coal-based economy, this is the second time they are hosting a COP. That has to mean something.

The denialists have come out with some science of their own

However, it doesn't mean there isn't still some strength among the remaining denialists. According to Euractiv:

The very same day the IPCC celebrated its 30th anniversary, the Silesian Region of Polish trade union Solidarity issued a joint statement with US think-tank the Heartland Institute, known for its climate denial stance.

The statement claims “there is no scientific consensus [italics mine] on the main causes and consequences of climate change,” going against the rigorous scientific conclusions established by the IPCC. “The Silesian Region of Solidarity, the Secretariat of Mining and Energy of Solidarity, and The Heartland Institute express scepticism of the assertions of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that the world stands at the edge of a climate catastrophe,” the statement goes on.

The group said they met during COP24 and agreed to begin working together more closely “to advance sound, science-based public policy”. It also said that Solidarity translated the first edition of the Heartland-published Climate Change Reconsidered series in 2009 and that it was very satisfied by the new science and policy presentations from Heartland during their COP24 meeting. “The presentations assured Solidarity that their doubts about current, alarmist climate policy are correct,” the statement also reads.

We've just seen that there is unprecedented scientific consensus on the causes and consequences of climate change. Follow the money.

Young people continue to show up the adults, showing who the real adults in the room are

With some 25 000 delegates coming from nearly 200 countries, it's not hard to be impressed with the gutsiness of the young people there. I picked up this highlight about Day 6, which was yesterday:

Eight-year-old Majka Mulak, initiator of the Orangutan Protection Club, was a guest at COP24. Did you catch that? Eight years old.

The Orangutan Protection Club is an initiative started by eight-year-old Majka Mulak, whose goal is to reduce the destruction of animal habitats in Indonesia. Maja's idea came about after her mother read her an article where it said that 25 orangutans die daily as a result of cutting down rainforests for cultivation of oil palm. It made a big impression on Majka - she decided to act, and asked her mother to stop buying products containing palm oil. She also got her school friends involved, and gave out hand-made certificates to those who were willing to join in.

Maja together with her mother founded a group on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/groups/1410044409125602/about/, encouraging people to join the project. You can read there, among other things, about palm oil substitutes and which products should be dispensed with in order not to contribute to the destruction of animal habitats. Source