What about conspiracy theories ?

Introduction

Recently I've seen a lot of so called "conspiracy theories" emerging on the internet.
I wanted to look for it a bit deeper and better understand what theses articles where talking about, so i share my review.

What does the word conspiracy means ?

But first, what is a definition ?
A definition explain something more precisely than the thing explained actually means.
There is no official definition of a word, even dictionary do not agree with all definition, so we can only found various definitions from various sources trusted or not by people. However we can look for the etymology of the word to understand the root meaning.

What is the definition of conspiracy ?

According to "The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, 4th Edition":

• An agreement to perform together an illegal, wrongful, or subversive act.
• Law An agreement between two or more persons to commit a crime or accomplish a legal purpose through illegal action.

According to "Wiktionary, Creative Commons Attribution/Share-Alike License":

• The act of two or more persons, called conspirators, working secretly to obtain some goal, usually understood with negative connotations.
• An agreement between two or more persons to break the law at some time in the future.

What is the etymology of conspiracy ?

According to "The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, 4th Edition":

• Middle English conspiracie, from Anglo-Norman, probably alteration of Old French conspiration, from Latin cōnspīrātiō, cōnspīrātiōn-, from cōnspīrātus, past participle of cōnspīrāre, to conspire; see conspire.

According to "Wiktionary, Creative Commons Attribution/Share-Alike License":

• The verb conspire generally accepted of coming from the Latin roots con ("with"), and spiro ("I breathe") — so 'to conspire' literally means 'to breathe together'.

According to above definition, i personally understand that a conspiracy theory is an hypothesis that speak about a group of people acting together illegally and often for an evil purpose.

I didn't have a clear definition of what the term "conspiracy" mean, i often saw a lot articles with "stupid images" and seen a lot of debate speaking about fake news including the word conspiracy so for me it was more a terms that referenced "paranoia theories" than anything else. So, it's not for that reason that i consider all "agreement to perform together an illegal or subversive act" theories true, from my opinion there is a lot of shitty theories around this terms but the "real term" is a bit more width and i wanted to know more about that.

True or false ?

Often when we read articles that speak about conspiracy theories, they appears to be a bit big not very probable but they are maybe truth, we can't prove that something is true but it's also difficult to prove that something is right. I remember the mathematician who wanted to prove that 1+1=2, he has needed 300 pages to scientifically prove that 1+1=2, so based on this fact, the only thing we can trust is our judgment and other judgment based on their reputation (based on our judgment of their reputation).

So i'ts very difficult to prove that something is false or true at 100%, this is a fact and based upon this point of view, we can be more open but less sure of things and unable to classify thing as "true" or "false" without a very deep research about.

And with the above definition of the terms conspiracy, in fact there exist a lot more theories that fit in this words.

What if true ?

Based on a mathematical analysis, i made the following reasoning: (Number are just for representation, they have not been calculated)

Considering the above definition that is more width, if 80% of theses theories are false, 20% of these are true.
If only 20% of these 20% are speaking about a converging humanity destruction or enslavement, that would represent a 4% probability of a humanity destruction or enslavement that would be in fact the biggest obstacle for our species to survive.

Maybe these number are wrong, they can be less or bigger, i just can't estimate that. But what i estimated is:

If there is a probability of only 0.001% of humanity destruction, enslavement or whatever else that would block our specie to evolve and/or even totally destruct the our specie that is humanity, that is a very big risk.

Conclusion

We fundamentally can't be sure of something, we just can be enough sure to be sure. Yeah this sentence is a bit tricky but is true.

I think that it's not very probable that conspiracy theories are true. But a lot of these theories are converging into a very catastrophic scenario that if true, is an obstacle to our survive or evolution.

What do you think about ?

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