Random events followed by stupid reactions and opportunism have probably shaped history more than conspiracies and careful planning. Conspiracy theories, bad history books and Hollywood create a seemingly logical and coherent story afterwards, and the story holds, because it is easier to accept than the chaos, incompetence and opportunism that really shaped events. Looking at original historical documents I have often found the top-level players asking each other "Now what do we do?" at several points in time, where some history books describe the smooth execution of a pre-made, well-thought-out plan.