RE: The Greatest Conspiracy
These things may appear random, but all are effects of an cause. Using your examples Helvetians first had been joined by the Tigurini who had been raiding roman provinces not painting them in the best light. Caesar also tried to stop them moving , the Helvetians went on to attack the Aedui who ask for Caesars help and got it. So it went on , cause, effect, cause. Nothing random.
The Archduke and WW1 conspiracy and high political/economic intrigue abound on those chapters. Far far too many players involved to be simple chance. Even the flat tire on your car is not random, a chain of events must have happened to reach that outcome. Unpredictable yes,probability clouds yes. There is a whole other discussion if random even exists. As Einstein said "God does not play dice".
Also it is undeniable that people plan illegal things. And others try guess what happened or is to happen.
Note that for some of the supposed cause-and-effect relations we only have Caesars word from his post-hoc book justifying himself to the Senate.
"Randomness is the property of lacking any sensible predictability" is the definition I use. Ex-post explanations and supposed cause-and-effect relations found after the event don't make the events less random. Maybe it is in the definition of randomness where we disagree.
As to Einstein: he was referring to quantum mechanics, and he was probably wrong. Bad pun.
"Maybe it is in the definition of randomness where we disagree." agreed =) . "he was probably wrong" lol