Vote Buying and Curation in the HF20 World

in #community6 years ago

Wanted to share a couple things I've noticed since HF20 went live. Would love people's thoughts on these topics as I always view my posts as the start of a conversation. Engagement does seem to be down since HF20 and that needs to change so lets get this conversation rolling.

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Curation Rewards

I'll be honest curation rewards aren't something I gave much thought to in the past as the odds of getting much of anything due to the way people would 0 minute upvote lowering the curation percentage meant the rewards pretty much sucked. Worse if you were actually online and someone posted you needed to wait 30 minutes for the full curation value to be applied...way to long.

Anyways at this point I just noticed a nice 0.023 SP curation reward for an autovote I gave to @pifc with a value of around 0.10. This is huge, truly gained around 25% back as a curation reward with a vote that landed at 15 minutes, but behind a fairly large vote which hits at 14 minutes. Hint to everyone out there, SBI votes at 14 minutes so if you want to front run them you will need to do 13 minutes.

The effects of changing to a 15 minute window and must importantly making the portion that used to go to the author return to the vote pool has actually increased curation rewards. This is a very good thing IMO. Wasn't so sure how the actual effects of this would play out, but seems to be working as there don't seem to be nearly as many people using a 0 minute self vote currently to lower the amount paid in curation.

Now to be clear, in my opinion Curation Rewards are just a nice bonus and not the end goal of a vote. For real profits cast your votes to people you engage with and those who support you. Not saying go vote for vote, but if someone ignores you post after post when you comment and upvote them why are you supporting them? Stop and find someone that cares about you and is willing to support your growth. Long term growth comes from finding people to connect with and help each other. Not by casting random votes hoping for a curation reward and surely not by voting for people who can't be bothered to reply to or upvote your comments to them.

Vote Buying

With the changes to the curation it makes vote buying a lot harder to have a gain by the time the post rewards hit. I think that those with fixed returns are going to need to increase the value from 110% after curation to at least 115% to make it more attractive IMO. 110% worked because most people weren't actually paying out that much in the end. This allowed for the changes in the markets and overall total bids effecting the reward pool which many times means your post display value isn't accurate and decreases over the 7 days.

So without changes to the vote sellers payouts which will reduce the return for sellers I think that vote buying will decrease for those who looked at it as a way to increase profits. I'll be upfront, I was trying to buy profitable votes to maximize the value I was powering up before HF20. It was working nicely except smartsteem never had enough votes for me...lol. Some of the posts they had less then 4 SBD worth of votes to sell. My last post I checked and could have sent them 65 SBD or 80 something steem. WOW...that tells me the vote buyers are drying up and kind of proves my point that 110% just isn't enough now. I bought 5SBD worth to see the effect and while it was slightly positive it's not enough to risk if the markets drop or some whales make a few massive votes and screw up the entire reward pool before payout. 10% margin can vanish almost overnight.

What have you noticed about curation rewards and/vote buying since the fork? Have you made any adjustments to your voting patterns? Am I crazy for thinking you actually read the entire post and are seeing these questions?

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My voting post HF20 has changed a little bit, Only a few accounts that I vote at 100%, but that has not changed, most of my content votes are at 50% unless they have not reached a payout level, then I bump to 85-100% dependant on what is needed for a two cent vote. (still not worth much myself $0.033). Comments I use steemworld to verify I will not be giving a dust vote and try to go to about a $0.022 incase of price falls.

I have made more long term investments in SBI, Incinboost, upvotshares, and will be looking at you minnowbuilders thing, and possible whaleshares. All are long term investments and provide a vote back. So sort of a bot, but not bot, but still a risk due the take the money and run chance for the operators. So just small investments, for small steady votes.

I like the long term approach myself and have over 200 SBI shares, a good amount of upvote shares and have heavily investment in minnowbuilder for obvious reasons. If you have any questions about MB just let me know. I'm a pretty safe bet for a place to park your steem. Have had access to tens of millions in the past and didn't run away with it, no way a few thousand dollars is a reason to take off.

I will be saving and not powering up for the remainder of the week. one can never have to many cookie jars. I want at least a handful of auto voters just incase one takes a walk, odds are good against all of them walking at the same time, and I am seriously thinking about opting out of steem-ua votes.

I changed all my autovotes to 15 minutes as per tcploymath's post suggestion, but other than that, I'm waiting to see some analysis over the next few weeks, because I'm sure it's coming down the pipe. I do like that those who self-voted at 0 minutes no longer gain anything :)

They seem to have. But I'm happy to wait for a week or so until someone does one of those nice data analysis posts.

Precisely the kind of post I autovote @ now 15 mins!

Posted using Partiko Android

I've been noticing the curation rewards going up already as well. It's actually been nice. Previously I didn't make much of an effort to get curation rewards as they were often small. I would just auto-vote at 0 on the authors I wanted to support. Then they got a larger piece of the pie. They were working for it anyways, right?

Now that we've changed to HF20, it makes more sense not to throw that vote away, so I moved it back and have started to get more curation rewards. If the author I like can't get it, no point in the reward going to the big parts of the pool where they're already getting huge rewards.

I agree that it's not really worth it to buy votes right now. There aren't many good places that actually offer a return that's worth the risk. That's just my opinion. There used to be options that could get you a 1.5x return after curation, but as things are, I wouldn't use any bid bots. Most offer you potential for total loss, but cap your potential upside. There's no reward for that risk, so I don't use them. Maybe this will change when the price of Steem goes up. Normally they raise the multiplier at those times to make sure someone is actually getting value back.

Not to self promote...but I will anyways...lol. @minnowbuilder program is a great way to get a consistent daily upvote with zero risk. The vote value is equal to 5x if you self voted with the same amount of SP. The other half of the vote is going to manually curated redfish to build them into minnows. Sales for @minnowbuilder3 start up on Monday.

Agree there is zero reason to vote early and return my vote value to the pool which largely goes to accounts that I have no interest in supporting. So 15 minutes is my set vote time now.

Risk of bid bots is insane now. The whole capped profit and take it in the rear on the losses shows they only care about their bottom lines and not the end user. This is why I had been sticking to SmartSteem before HF20, but now it's not worth it as my curation is actually 25%.

Hello @thedarkhorse. You received 2.5 steem from @ocdb. That was a mistake the bot made, I kindly ask you if you can transfer them back to @ocdb with the memo "transfer".

Thank you!

I just took care of it. Noticed it this afternoon, but didn't have time to figure out who to ask what to do about it. Thanks for the message, saved me some time asking around tomorrow.

Thank you for your integrity :)

Well we are back in the same spot, it got returned to me again. Not sure what's up with the automated end of this but clearly there is a bug.

I'm not transferring it back yet, please verify if you want me to send it somewhere else or a different memo. If you need to reach me on discord to discuss this it's thedarkhorse #6765.

Oh and integrity is one of the only things we can control in our lives. That and the effort you put forward. The results sometimes are outside of our control...but do everything to the best of your abilities and with the highest integrity and good things tend to follow.

I agree man, What's on out control should be flawless, that's our honor on the line :)

Yeah, just transfer them to me and I'll sort it out, thanks. Btw, just followed you, you seem like a cool steemian.

Thank you for that...guessing my UA score just jumped a few points...lol. Was actually just reading your broken nose post...will be replying over there.

Sending the funds now.

I have been planning on playing around with the bots just to see what they do but in my head, I would think that every steem sent in would be a loss.

Smartsteem is always a small profit unless the reward pool gets hit harder then expected or the price feed drops over the week.

Right now that profit seems pretty safe as the drain on the reward pool seems to be decreasing due to the week of inactivity, hence why our vote values are increasing even with decreasing Steem Prices. But that can change pretty quickly and it will be the reverse once we are past the week of nothing happening during HF20. Numbers are skewed right now, but they will normalize.

If you want to test anything I would wait a couple more weeks due to the skewed numbers that we have right now.

I have for sure read the post and need to see the effect on vote buying/selling and curation myself. The hard stance on the 25% going to curation or straight to the burn room definitely will impact author impact but should increase the worthwhile effort of engagement, which should then in result in some mutual churn.

I have a bunch of people who must be auto-voting me after 1 minute or something still, and it is a shame to see that those votes just get burned. It is amazing that no matter how much has happened that some people don't even know that this is not helping the author, or themselves.

Yeah I had like 10 almost 0 value early votes on this account. They aren't people I've ever engaged with and must be accounts that are set to upvote as posts hit certain categories, ie bots. They still help me and collectively were a 1c value so I'll take it.

The fact that some don't realize the changes is part of why I needed to write this post. Was chatting with someone who was still thinking it was 30 minutes. They are active, but clearly not reading the technical posts out there so figured they can't be alone in missing these changes.

Well now that the early voting is helping STEEM's price in general, I imagine. The mistakes that these people are making are essentially burning the steem supply, right? The only issue is that they marginally chip away at the 25% curation percentage to burn it. If the steem gets burned, supply goes down over time, and in theory, should eventually help drive up the price of available of STEEM.

This is of course if I even understand it all correctly....

My understanding is it's not burned, but rather returned to the reward pool. It's partly why we are seeing higher vote values even with lower steem prices. More steem in the reward pool to be distributed per SP powered up.

Thanks for this post @thedarkhorse.

"Have you made any adjustments to your voting patterns? Am I crazy for thinking you actually read the entire post and are seeing these questions?"

Yep, read it! On break at work ...

My initial reaction is the (to me, anyway) need to be this precise about what should just "flow" much more "organically" ...

As is, "we the people" seem to be literally competing with "bot code" in our available time. I don't have to think very long on who is going to "win" that "game" ...

That said, "it is what it is" and the way the designers have (up until now, at least) decided "the game" will be played ...

I'll close with an appeal to you. For the benefit of the PIFC Community, put down your recommendations for optimizing our upvoting - both auto and manual ...

Thanks again!

Posted using Partiko Android

I am getting feedback from others and trying to figure out the best approaches post HF20 as some has changed for sure. Once I figure out the best way to optimize people's approach I will lay it out for the pifc community. Been testing little things and asking questions of those who have dug into the math of things in my spare time...lol. Will take a little more before I'm willing to share all my thoughts on it as a more definitive guide vs my ramblings here.

Very good @thedarkhorse.

"Will take a little more before I'm willing to share all my thoughts on it as a more definitive guide ..."

Understood and much appreciated! 👍

In the meantime, I'll be "out on the duration trail," as time permits, writing and upvoting on the spot. Like right here, right now ... 😏

Posted using Partiko Android

I haven't thought much about the numbers but previously, people were maximizing their curation by self voting at 0 and then buying. That is no longer possible as frontrunners have a chance of entering the game. Especially for the larger SP accounts, this should significantly change profits. Maybe I should go and front run trending... :D

Had wondered if you could earn enough front running the bid bots, but don't think my vote is large enough to fully capitalize on it. Even if I could that is just rewarded those who buy insane amounts of votes even further and I just can't bring myself to do it.

Not for profit just, to be annoying. :)

Need that little rolling on the ground emoji but to lazy to find it. LMAO.

If you can't have a little fun with this stuff you are taking life way to seriously.

You got a 40.87% upvote from @ocdb courtesy of @thedarkhorse!

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