COLLEGE FOOTBALL SATURDAY 9/2 - Best Total Bet + Analysis

from Bang the Book
THE PLAY: (OVER 56) MARY @ TEX
MARYLAND @ TEXAS (56): DJ Durkin has given this Maryland program a real shot in the arm and they are returning some star power on offense with runningback Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison who averaged 9.1 ypc and 7.1 ypc respectively. The duo combined for 1,637 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns and are both breakaway threats. Their leading receiver DJ Moore is back and they have a stud guard in Damian Prince. In their way is a Longhorns defense that allowed 31.5 points per game last year and although Texas is returning ten starters on defense, they will be changing schemes to 3-4 and 3-3-5 looks this year under new defensive coordinator Todd Orlando. The Longhorns have NFL talent on defense in junior linebacker Malik Jefferson but they are a defense that has given up an average of more than 200 rushing yards per game over the last two seasons. Despite DJ Durkin being a defensive coach and a former collegiate defensive end, the Maryland defense gave up 29.5 points per game and they were terrible against the run with 215 yards on the ground a game allowed. The Longhorns ran a spread option offense last year and will be more of the same under Tom Herman with a ton of talent up front, namely 1st team All American Connor Williams at left tackle. Their biggest sleeper on the team might be wide receiver Collin Johnson, who is a 6’6” big play threat capable of out jumping anybody on the field. They return sophomore quarterback Shane Buechele and while they may lose a 2,000-yard runningback in D’Onta Foreman, they still have a very talented ball carrier in Chris Warren to take his place. Both of these teams will have success sustaining drives on the ground as well as through the air, the Longhorns averaged 85.5 offensive plays per game last year (Houston averaged 85.3) and Texas should be able to score at will considering Tom Herman’s track record of lighting up scoreboards. The Terps have scored 50 or more points in their last three season openers and they are likely to surprise the Longhorns with a few early scores here, turning this thing into a boat race by the end of the third quarter. We’re looking for a 44-23 type of final with Texas coming out on top to start up our Saturday.
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from oddsshark
Predicted Score 19.3 - 39 58.3
Computer Pick TEXAS (-18.5) Over 56
Public Consensus TEXAS (-18.5) Over 56
Consensus Bet % 75% 88%
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