Which investments should I buy most? Which ones should not be bought?

Yesterday, a friend asked me what kind of financial products should I invest in in 2018. What is the last thing to buy? Here is my reply, personal opinion, not necessarily right.

First, it should be bought.

I think in 2018, we can invest in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index funds. The current valuation of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is reasonably low. According to historical data, the annual ROE of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is between 11% and 13%. This level of return should be maintained in the future, and 2018 should be no exception. If the valuation of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 continues to rise, there will be excess returns.

Second, they should not be bought.

The last thing to buy is digital money such as Bitcoin.

1. Digital currencies, such as Bitcoin, are highly volatile and can not be used as a universal practical payment tool at all. Assuming that, as many people wish, digital currencies such as Bitcoin will become a universal and practical payment tool, then their currency value will naturally stabilize for a long time. It is estimated that these people should never participate in the transaction again, because they have been involved in the transaction because they have seen Bitcoin and so on for a long time. When Bitcoins go up or down for a long time, people's willingness to invest is greatly reduced.

1. From Bitcoin to Wright coin to other digital currencies, these digital currencies themselves emerge endlessly and are in unlimited supply. At first, some people participated in the transaction of digital currency because of the fear that the central bank (the state) would issue credit currency "at will", hoping to find a kind of currency which can maintain purchasing power permanently. In fact, the supply of money can be adjusted automatically. This is the advantage of the modern credit currency system, which can better regulate the economic operation and better solve the problem. Inflation and deflation. In addition, the idea that one can hold a currency and benefit forever is naive and inconsistent with common sense. The world is always changing.

The next thing you shouldn't buy is P2P.

1. I can't imagine what kind of company or individual can sustain interest rates of more than 10% for a long time. A-share listed companies are already among the best in the national economy. How many of them have a return on net assets of more than 10% per year? How critical is it for a company or an individual who dares to borrow such a high interest rate? Why not borrow from banks or relatives? These questions are extremely frightening.

1. Maybe many people will say that large P2P companies may depend, but the fact is that the larger the size of P2P companies, the more difficult it is to identify harmony credits effectively. This is not an industry where the strong are always strong and make friends with the scale.