区块链项目是一个骗局吗？ 下 Are Blockchain-based Projects Scams? (Part 2)

　　嗯，没错，对方要的就是你这副矮挫样，先用大帽子扣住你，让你从一开始就不会对其有太多怀疑，进而对方讲什么，你就愿意想当然地相信什么了。。。

　　Yes, the author’s intention is to stun you, make you feel dwarfed in his presence, so right from the beginning you don’t doubt his words, then continue to believe whatever he says next.

　　这个套路是不是也似曾相识？什么？你说像谁？嗯嗯，你说的没错，就是国内某知名狼教授嘛！哦哦，你可看清楚了，我说的是狼教授，可没人身攻击哦。我一直都认为，人们在从事自己行业多年后，会成为一个或多个行业里的专家，这无可厚非也是完全正常的，但如果有人跳出来，非得要告诉全世界人民说他自己360行，行行都是专家，这，这，这就明显有点扯蛋了吧？人们认为其在某个领域获得了成功，就想当然地认为其说的话就是真理，无论说的什么，有个玩笑不常说嘛，未成功的人说的话别人可能会当成放屁，但成功的人放个屁旁人都可能觉得有一定道理的。

　　Does this plot seem familiar to you? What? Whom did you say it reminds you of? Bingo, you are right. It’s the famous Chinese “Professor Wolf.” I only use the alias “Profession Wolf” so it’s not defamation. My opinion is that if a person has practiced in his field of study for many years, it’s very likely that he will become an expert in this field. However, if a person claims that he’s a master of all trades, then it clearly is a lie. Some people believe that once a person has established himself in one industry, everything he says becomes true, no matter how ridiculous it might be. Therefore we jokingly say that “an unsuccessful man’s words are bullshit, but a successful man’s bullshit is meaningful somehow.”

　　我回答她说：任何行业里都不乏一些骗局，区块链行业里也如此。但我们不能一刀切，更不能因为有骗局就因噎废食，这是不对的。相反，目前区块链中也有较多很不错的项目，但你说过几年后谁会存活下来，按照概率，大部分项目都会死掉，少数区块链才会活下来。

　　So i replied my friend, there is scam in every trade, so is the blockchain industry. But we shall not paint everyone with the same brush, or throw the baby out with the bathwater because of the scams. In fact, there are many good projects in the blockchain scene, but nobody know how many of them could survive after a couple of years. Probably most of them will fizzle out, with only a few left.

　　国内今年可能最火爆的投资，莫过于区块链项目了。但是如果你问我，区块链项目有没风险？那我还必须老老实实告诉你，有，为什么？因为波动太大，搞不好心脏受不了，开个玩笑，但实际上风险的确是有的。加之近来一时涌现出各种各样的X链，多得让你一时间琳琅满目眼花缭乱的感觉，那么，如何去判断项目的可靠呢？

　　Blockchain startups are the most popular choices for Chinese investors this year. If you ask me whether there are any risks involved, i will tell you honestly, the answer is yes. Why? Because their price fluctuation is insane, it’s bad for your heart. Just kidding. But of course there are risks. Especially when there are so many x-chains being launched every day, it’s just overwhelming. So how should one assess the legitimacy of each project?

　　一般来说，如果符合以下几点，我认为项目还是比较可信的：

　　Generally speaking, if the following criteria are met, i reckon that they’re relatively reliable:

　　1、圈内知名人士朋友推荐；

　　喏，看清楚了，不是挂个羊头自封神仙的那种，光知名不够，很多现在所谓的“知名专家”，水份太大了。君不见电视上那些所谓股评专家背后隐藏了多少秘密。是的确有真材实料的，拿你当朋友的那种。

　　Recommended by a reputable person/friend in the field. Please take note here, reputation must be earned, not self proclaimed. There are so many “famous experts” these days, they are all overrated. There are a lot of hidden lies behind the stock & shares experts on TV. But some of them are genuine, who treat you as a friend.

　　2、听其言，观其行，仔细看待项目团队的行为，然后自己分析判断，是否如承诺中所做了？还是光说不做练家子？或者说了100分，只做了50分？还是说了80分，却做到了90分，自己可以判断的嘛。

　　Listen to their words, observe their behavior. Analyse the team’s action, and ask yourself, did they do what they set out to do? Or they only made empty promises? Or they said 100, but only did 50? In some cases, they said 80 but achieved 90, this is something you can judge.

　　3、项目是否有实际落地应用？还是只有框架没有实际的落地应用支撑？

　　潮水退后，才能看到谁是真正在裸泳，热潮过后，没有实际应用支撑的项目99%都会完蛋，这毫无疑问。

　　Does this project have any real world application? Or is it just a theoretical proposal without any implementation? Once the tide goes, you will see who is skinny-dipping. Once the hype dies off, 99% of the blockchain startups will be gone. No doubt.

　　4、项目团队是否有相关行业背景优势？

　　这个所谓优势，不仅指的是区块链方面技术，更多指的是从事行业的优势。比如，你做XX链，那你团队中是否有XX相关从业经验？等等，如果完全没有，那恕我直言，教学费的可能性非常大，至于看不看好，你自己说呢？

　　Does the team behind this project have advantages in the field? The “advantages” here is not only referred to their expertise in blockchain technology, but also in an entrepreneurial sense, do they have any experiences? Because if they don’t, chances are, you will be paying for their school fees if you invest in their project. You need to make an informed decision.

　　说实在话，好项目还是实在太少了，滥竽充数，想抢先浑水摸鱼捞一把就跑的人却大有人在。所以，投资区块链，需要靠自己的知识和判断，需要自己的验证，只有自己搞清楚了，才会心里更踏实。再者，投资项目这事儿，我一直都认为，评估下自身后，如果你认为自己能接受其回报背后的风险，那就可以去做，反之，如果你不能接受其背后的风险，那么再小的投资，对你都是很大的风险。

　　To be honest, good projects are extremely rare. There are plenty of those who pretend to be doing something but actually are just here to make a quick buck. Therefore, to invest in blockchain you need to be vigilant, analytical and gain your own knowledge. Once you have understood what it really is about, you will feel more assured. You need risk assessment for any kind of investment. If you are willing to face the potential loss, then go ahead. If not, any small investment could be highly risky for you.

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(This image was taken from Baidu, in case of any copyright infringement, please contact me @rivalhw)