Those Fallen Airplane 那些坠落的飞机 | Monthly Review 月旦评

cn-reader (61)in #cn • 6 years ago

PART ONE

Recently, I listened to a podcast. The host uses the celebrity quotes of entrepreneurial successes those she interviewed before to answer “how to get rich”, a question everyone wants to know.

最近听了一个节目，主持人将采访过的创业成功者的名人语录一一道来，用来回答「如何创富」这个人人都想知道答案的问题。

I like the host very much. Her words are soft and grounded, and she believes that "the hardships of life are the norm in life". But I don't know if I should sum up my success through the experience of celebrity.

我挺喜欢这位主持人，她话语轻柔，又接地气，认为「生活艰难乃是人生常态」。但我对通过名人的经历来总结成功的方法不置可否。

In this world, the living people have the right to speak and the only winners have the audience. As a result, various celebrities were asked to share their successful experiences or entrepreneurial attitudes and constantly spread the “law of survival” to the world. For example, many successful people believe that diligence is the cornerstone of the road to success. However, diligence even cannot maintain the existing work, let alone succeed.

在这世界上，活着的人才有发言权，赢家才有听众。于是，各类名人被要求分享成功经历，创业态度，不停地向世人传播「生存法则」。例如，不少成功人士相信勤奋是通往成功之路的基石，可那些芸芸众生中，勤奋甚至都不能保持现有工作，更别提成功了。

PART TWO

In the Second World War, the United States military checked the surviving fighter planes and found that the engine part had the least bullet holes, while other parts had more bullet holes. As a result, the military decided to add bullet-proof equipment at the certain parts which had more bullet holes. The mathematician Abraham Wald questioned: How are the bullet holes distributed on those falling planes?

在第二次世界大战中，美国军方通过检查幸存的战机发现，引擎部位的弹孔最少，而其他部位弹孔偏多。于是，军方拟定在弹孔偏多的其他部位添加防弹设备。军方向科研小组咨询意见。数学家Abraham Wald 提出质疑——在那些坠落的飞机上，弹孔又是如何分布的呢？

Simply observing the status of the "survivors" is not enough to sum up the reasons for "survival." If you check the distribution of bullet holes in other parts of the crashed plane, it may be the same as survivors. Then, the other parts are not the key to improving survival.

仅仅观察「幸存者」的状态，不足以总结出「幸存」的原因。如果检查坠落飞机的其他部位的弹孔分布，或许会与幸存者一般无二。那么，其他部位并不是提高存活率的关键所在。

Wald went through a series of mathematics corroboration and finally proposed bullet-proof equipment to harden the engine. This measure eventually increased the fighter survivorship rate.

Wald 经过一系列的数学佐证，最后提议加固引擎部位的防弹设备。这一措施最终提高了战机幸存率。

PART THREE

The business circles are like the battlefield. It usually has upon and downs, while the entrepreneurial success is rare. Overwhelming media reports often give people the illusion that everyone can “leave the name”. Those 90 % of the losers struggled out of the game and suddenly quit the game. They did not even have the opportunity to sum up the failure experience.

商场浮沉乃常态，创业成功者实属凤毛麟角。可铺天盖地的媒体报导，往往给人一种人人都能「留名」的错觉。那些百分之九十的失败者们，奋斗了一场，便黯然退场，连上台总结失败经验的机会都没有。

Although I questioned the success, considering the conclusion is too subjective, but I like to read the story of successful people. Meanwhile, I also like to listen to my friends and relatives, as well as ordinary people's stories. The former is a distant starlight, and the latter is a gravity field that can keep you down to earth.