巴菲特和比特币（Warren Buffet and Bitcoin）

chenlocus (62)in #cn • 6 years ago (edited)

好几次看到媒体说巴菲特抨击比特币的新闻。其实早些年我对巴菲特还挺崇拜的，师出本杰明.格莱汉姆这个华尔街价值投资大师。我把他老师的‘证券分析’看了不下5遍，他的每年致股东书我也常看。但是通过这些年在中国股市的实践和房屋市场的现状，我觉得巴菲特的价值投资理念还是有时间和空间的局限性，他的投资理念有很多东西解释不了。

比如，这几年来，中国的银行股估值一直极低，很多股息率达到5%以上，市盈率一直在5倍左右徘徊，股价经常低于净资产。而中国的房屋价格一直高企，租售比一直小于2%。对于美国股市，IBM, 微软，亚马逊这些科技公司，按照巴菲特的价值观，你永远没有机会买入，因为他们一直不发股息，市盈率和市净率都远远高于巴菲特的买入标准。

巴菲特说希望永久持有一个公司的股票，也说比特币价格最终要归零。但是，我仔细想想，从长远来说，任何一个公司都会倒闭，其股价分文不值。而为什么一个高速成长的公司，即便一毛不拔，人们会给予很高的估价呢？人们图的什么呢？而一个公司到了成熟期，开始发股息了，它的估值反而就变低了呢？

如果说房子价格因为货币超发导致的高价，那么奢侈品和古董呢？它们的价值何在？比如香奈尔的包包，它比普通包包结实耐用很多吗？比如一幅张大千的字画，为何能把价格拍到千万甚至上亿元？

难道比特币以后不能成为加密货币界的老古董吗？以太坊，EOS，Steem难道不能成为加密货币界的IBM, 微软和亚马逊吗？

我觉得，投资时候，价值是人们共识出来的，企业成长了，人们认为它的价值就增加了，区块链上的应用增加了，人们难道不认为它的价值增加了吗？在不同时期，人们的期望不一样，导致对价值的评估也不一样，你没法准确评估一个企业或者区块链的价值，最主要是无形资产的价值。而价格，更多的是自由市场博弈出来的，甚至跟价值毛关系都没有。只不过，理智的投资者更关注价值，不愿意为价值付出更多价格，尽管价值本身也是那么不靠谱。

It has been reported many times that Warren Buffet said Bitcoin worth nothing and it will return to zero. I was a fan of Warren Buffet and I have read his tutor---Ben. Graham's masterpiece 'Security Analysis' at lease 5 times, also I have read his letters to shareholders each year. I always think all things should have an interior value which can be evaluated until I practice this idea in the Chinese stock market and real estate market.

The bank shares has been undervalued for many years ( yield ratio over 5%, PE less than 5 and PB around 1)and the real estate market has been overvalued according to Warren Buffet's theory. However, things undervalued can be undervalued forever. Things overvalued do so as well. With time passing by, you will realize the things undervalued are actually overvalued since time can erode their so called interior value. If there are lots of bad debts occur in Chinese bank, you will find that market is telling you the truth.

What about those high technology companies in America, such as IBM, Microsoft, Amazon, you won't have change to buy in according to Buffet's theory. He did buy in IBM shares years ago but this proved to be a fault. Maybe this area is out of his domain of knowledge. While a company is at its start stage and proving its high development potentials, e.g. its revenue increase more than 200% for two continuous years, the market will give it a high evaluation even if it doesn't dispatch any dividend. A company will been given a low evaluation when people believe it has reached its peak even if it dispatches high dividend.

How about those luxury products such as Shannon bag, is it more much stronger than normal bag, isn't it worth the price? what is its interior value? How about those antiques? What are their usages? What are their interior values? Will Bitcoin become an antique in the world of cryptocurrencies? will Ethereum, eos, steem become the IBM, Microsoft, Amazon in the world of cryptocurrencies?

This is the fact that any company will go to death and the value will be disappear. So the value is somehow our human being's illusion. Buffet once said he wants to find companies that he could hold their shares forever. I seriously doubt it. How would you like to hold shares of a company forever who would definitely perish in the unknown future.

The interior value of a investment target is the illusion of human being, we design lots of theories to prove their value, however, they are variable, in the long run, everything will return to zero. Market price is even more fluctuated than value and it is mostly a gaming result of many people. As an investor, we should respect the market, whatever the value or price it offers us, since whatever the interior value or market price, they are either the result of gaming or the output of a financial theory, long words short, they are consensus.

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