What happens next in Catalonia?

In case you've been hiding in a cave, the Catalans tried to have a referendum on Sunday about whether they should form an independent state.

They faced opposition from Spain - the Spanish state disabled the census tracking which checked that people weren't voting more than once. They confiscated ballot boxes, they pulled voters out of the polling booths by their hair, fired rubbet bullets into lines of voters (hitting one person in their eye, which is likely to be lost) and bashed terrified old ladies on the head for good measure.

Despite this mayhem the turnout was 43%, with most voting for independence. The Catalan govt says it has a mandate to leave, given that there would have been a portion of yes voters who were prevented from voting and some who were too terrified to venture out of their homes.

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So what happens next?

They're having a Catalonia-wide strike on October 3rd. This is to prevent the Spanish state from seizing the apparatus of Catalonia.

The Catalonia government says it will declare independence on Friday October 6th, which is the 83 year anniversary of Catalonia's insurrection on Oct 6th 1934 against the Fascist leader General Franco, when they proclaimed the Catalan State. The original insurrection wasn't successful, but they are hoping this one will be.

How will Spain respond?

In theory, Spain will send in the army. But that all depends on the European Union. Under Article 7 of the Lisbon Treaty, no state can use a military force against it's citizens. The Spanish say that because yesterday's events were by the military police they are OK under the treaties. The European Union hasn't responded to that - but if an army is sent in, there can be no doubt.

If The EU sticks to the rule book, Spain will get suspended. But the EU is notorious for bending rules when it suits them (they threw the book at the Greeks for budget infractions, but didn't even apply fines to France for the same infractions, "because they are France", in the words of the EU Commission. So it's likely they might bend the rules for Spain if Spain sends in the army - Spain will be consulting the other Europeans in advance of any action.

What happens if Catalonia becomes independent?

They're in the euro, and they represent 20% of Spain's economy. Independence should mean that they are immediately outside the EU, which means the single market shrinks. There will likely be an economic hit to Catalonia, Spain and the wider EU that trades with them.

If the Catalans can't continue to use the euro, they will need a contingency plan - presumably the Catalan govt has made plans but no-one knows what they are.

If I was a Catalan I'd be buying bitcoin or ethereum right now. Because no-one knows what will happen to the money.

Prepare for a wild ride.