Thoughts on Self-Driving Cars
Fully autonomous self-driving cars will be the most impactful invention of the 21st century.
I was thinking about the unique capabilities of the technology once it reaches 100% adoption on the road in combination with access to the location of other cars and traffic lights at all times.
Most people consider the advantages are strictly that you can get work done while magic happens under the hood. While that may be the first thought that comes to mind, there are many other significant boons that really ought to expedite the delivery of this technology.
Traffic Ceases to Exist
Synchronous travel suggests that people will no longer have to wait around for other cars to start when the light goes green
It doesn't even have to be the case that all cars need have the same physical properties for instantaneous synchronous travel to be safe. If you're behind a truck, the AI will take its unique characteristics into consideration.
Furthermore, self driving cars will make traffic lights smarter by considering how many cars are on the road, weather conditions, construction, etc.
Cost Savings
A lot of energy is wasted when humans are behind the wheel.
We frequently have to make full stops at lights, which means having to sit idly wasting gas... then expending excessive energy on overcoming static friction to get the car rolling. On top of that slowing down, speeding up, brief unexpected halts.... our tires and brakes aren't too happy either.
Cars will no longer have to make full stops at lights when knowledge of traffic light timings and all other cars on the road are accessible to the vehicle. Simply decelerating when necessary to stay in motion will save a lot of money.
Environmental Impact
Emissions will be down by many orders of magnitude as all cars move into electric power and are recharged through more sustainable means.
Together with not having to spend as much energy in transit, the footprint automated cars have on global warming will be a mere fraction of what manually driven cars have now.
Safety
Accidents will be extremely rare rather than a necessary evil.
Not having to worry that the AI operating the car next to you is driving under the influence, fatigued, emotionally disturbed, texting, and so on means that 1.3 million lives a year will live another day.
Questions for the Road Ahead
When do you expect self-driving cars will see majority adoption on the road? When do you expect it will be illegal to operate manual cars or alternative travel on roads? What challenges do you think the technology will face in its mainstream introduction?
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My biggest concern with autonomous cars is how will it react during a malfunction. Something as simple as losing brakes, or a blow out could potentially cause the car to go haywire, or even worse if someone were to hack the system.
I'm fairly certain all mechanical failures can be monitored and identified. On the topic of blowouts, perhaps weather conditions could create a complicated situation?
Concerning hacking, automotive security is certainly going to be an interesting field to watch. This article talks about it - http://www.businessinsider.com/driverless-cars-hacking-ricks-2016-12
Interesting food for thought. I do hope that the adoption of self-driving cars happens soon, I was never a fan of waiting in traffic.
Tesla is definitely the pioneer in this sector, I wonder how many other companies will follow suit.
Only other major player I'm aware of is Google - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo
I don't think many will follow because of how prohibitively expensive it is and the federal barriers to entry that exist as well.
The earliest I think we will see them is 2025, more likely around 2030 after an excessive battery of safety tests and campaigning.
I do not agree with any of your points.
I do not believe that self driving cars will be a thing in the future.
It is only a bandaid, a temporary solution to a problem that is completely going away. People are moving to cities where they can walk/bike to all places, or they are moving out to the country where there is no traffic, and dirt roads will mean it will be a lot more time before the robots can figure them out.