Mendocino outdoor cannabis agronomics - an overview - 16 original photos

All prices are current, based on 100 unit price points, and regard outdoor production.

Units and volumes selected for data are as suggested by the head grower (below) at this location.

These first few shots are from a light deprivation greenhouse which is what we got hired to shoot. However, in this post I am only looking at numbers for outdoor production. All photos were taken July 13-14. Variety is called Sunset Sherbet (orange) with a few randoms of King Tut (blueish).

unit	volume	cost / volume
water (hauled)	500 gallons	$100
grow bag	600 gallon	$100
cage	8'x15'	$50
seed plug	1	$10
guano	44 lbs	$13
neam	32 oz	$1.30
peat	14 ft3	$3.39
sand	4 ft3	$0.30
clay	4 ft3	$0.30
variable costs	per plant (no labor)	$278.29

Fixed costs	cycle	for 100 plants:
labor (three full time)	$20 x 120 hours x 16 weeks	$38 400
truck	annual	$5000
licence	annual	$5000
fence (see above)	one time expense	$3000
water cistern	one time expense	$3000

Pre-harvest total cash input including labor (no rent) : $82 229 /100 plants.

Per pound costs (post harvest):

Hand trimming

• At $200 / lb they provide their own food and lodging. (locals)
• At $100 / lb includes all food and lodging. (trimmigrants)
• $30 / lb covers testing, packaging and accounting/tracking.

Projected yield	total cost	cost per pound (trim via locals)
4 pounds per plant	$174 229	$435.57
6 pounds per plant	$220 229	$367.05
8 pounds per plant	$266 229	$332.78

This does not include rent on land, market development, waste stream utilization, sales, delivery or collections.

After harvest, there is a 25% tax per wholesale dollar too, but since that doesn't affect cost of production I left it out.

Land acquisition is currently the wild west, so I left that out too.

About price:

November pricing at legal dispensaries (early sativas):

2012 top shelf outdoor: $4000
2014 top shelf outdoor: $3000
2016 top shelf outdoor: $2000
2017 top shelf outdoor: $700

Projected ROI on 100 plants and 6 pounds per plant at $600 per pound (no rent):
= 100 x 6 x (600 - 367.05) - $82 229 (initial investment)
= $57 541.

Farmers in Monterey will likely produce this en masse and force a significant price plunge (2 years), then a re-equalization based on production cost (5 years) all the while pristine products continue fetching a better price. Final phase will likely be an estate model with ecotourism (10 years).

The ones who currently have the sales accounts now probably won't be able to maintain them through a heavy price drop, and soon enough there will be people clamouring for tenants on land mortgaged beyond its sale value. Which is another reason I left out the price of rent, because in my opinion, its going to really drop.

Current rent prices can be calculated one of two ways: either take a location's normal rent and multiply it by 3, or plan on $10 000 per month and plan to pay 5 months in advance. There are different yield sharing models, and different deals for family, but those were still the terms this year. I suspect this spring they'll already be lower.

Land in Mendocino sometimes does one thing exceptionally well. If certain variables come together, its generally worth a fortune. Mendocino acres get fog consistently in July, or they don't. Truly exquisite grapes get morning fog, naturally occurring redwoods get morning fog, and you can guess what these Mendocino trees need to actually achieve 8 pounds per plant.

Sure nice of them to let me help, describe to me their techniques, and make one of the more interesting work days ever.

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