Past and future of Byteball's airdrop to STEEM members

in #byteball6 years ago (edited)

I read that since an instant creation of a STEEM account costs less than 10$, there is recently an overload of new accounts meant to reach a 30 reputation in order to get the 10$ worth of Byteball.
Sort of an arbitrage.
The official announcement on STEEM was at 2018-7-12:
https://steemd.com/steemit/@punqtured/official-byteball-airdrop-to-steemians
STEEM price action in the recent month is:
image.png
Credit to coinmarketcap.com

In USD terms the price of STEEM is higher than immediately before the announcement, and in BTC terms the price of STEEM is lower than immediately before the announcement.
A mixed performance.
Bitcoin's price rose more sharply since the announcement:
Bitcoin's price action
image.png
Credit to coinmarketcap.com

I guess that BitFinEx' USDT (Tether) has more to do with it than Byteball and STEEM combined, and Bitcoin is not the only or the most recommended gateway into distributed/decentralized digital currencies.

Byteball's price also declined in BTC terms and rose in USD terms since the announcement:
image.png
Credit to coinmarketcap.com

My guess that the rise in BTC's price is not related to the announcement.
According to these graphs I guess that either the new accounts creation rate is not that big, or that STEEM account creation fee is low enough to still fail to cause its price to rise despite a rise in its demand.
STEEM account creation is a positive for STEEM demand , even if not necessarily so in the long term.
The reason for this is that even in order for its STEEM and SBD content to be depleted, the account must have some Steem Power, and the not necessarily part is due to the possibility of delegations.
The cost of reputation pump, especially to a level like 30 can be negative, so abusers of this airdrop's rules can benefit from it even more than the mere arbitrage between STEEM account creation fee and the 10$ Byteball airdrop for reputation 30..

So Byteball's decision makers will either:

  1. Change the rules of the airdrop to STEEM members.
    1.1. Cancelling it altogether
    1.2. Restricting it further only for reputations above a certain level
    1.3. Limiting by join date - this is my suggestion for the Byteball decision makers
    1.4. Decreasing allowances from what they are now

Or a combination of the above

  1. Let unclaimed Byteball reserves begone

I expect busy to mess my enumeration above, the way it and steemit already did.
Either way, the time to claim your Byteball is limited, so I advise to users below reputation 50 to not try to get to 60 unless they are willing to lose some STEEM or SBD value in order to quadruple their Byteball allowance by using big bidbots.
Users at my reputation level or below (below 61, unless you read this thread in busy.org) should obviously not try to reach a full 70 (according to steemit.com) unless they want to risk all of their allowance for the chance of doubling it.
Reputation 40 is easy to achieve fast enough (speculation, because I assume here that the distribution if not going to end immediately, which IDNK) for bidbot savvy and for connected/established individuals.

BTW, after today's thread (the one prior to this) I noticed that busy.pay's vote was halved.
I guess they try to replenish their VP.
It can be seen as a hint for where the Byteball distribution is headed to.
Typed at 2018-7-29, posted at 2018-7-30

Edit: Now I know busy is down to voting only once in 24 hours instead of every 12 hours.
The farther one posts since last busy voted last post, the bigger the loss from it.

Sort:  

You got a 100.00% upvote from @sunrawhale courtesy of @stimialiti!

This service has been created with the help of @yabapmatt so please show your support by voting for him for witness!

Coin Marketplace

STEEM 0.19
TRX 0.15
JST 0.029
BTC 62978.31
ETH 2546.24
USDT 1.00
SBD 2.76