The Best Indicator For The State Of Steem?
Before getting to the main point of this morning's article, I wanted to do my part as a public service announcement. Something took place that eluded me until late last evening. Evidently some already mentioned it but I feel an obligation to do the same.
If you are unaware, there was a difference of opinion @share2steem. This caused the lead developer to leave with the code, including the database. This is of concern for those who used the site with Steemconnect.
Anyone who did this, if you have not done so, please click on the following link to revoke access.
Also, for those who delegated to @share2steem, it is best to revoke that too.
Here is @sebbbl's post about what took place.
It is good to see team's respond in such a prompt fashion when something like this arises. We are going to see disputes within development teams as to the direction of projects. When something like this arises, swift action is helpful not only for the DApp, but the community at large.
So what is the best indicator about the State of Steem?
We heard the call last week with many noted Steemians on there. It was a show that really provided some insight into what people are thinking about.
Yesterday, I happened to take a look at @arcange's daily charts, something I tend not to until towards the end of the month. In looking at it, I noticed something very telling, at least in my mind.
This was the chart through 12-16.
Here is how the chart looked on through 11-30.
Notice the Orcas. They had a jump of 2,327 MVests in roughly half a month. Remember, a MVest is equal to just under 500 Steem (497.118). In other words, you are looking at a whole lot of Steem Power being added to this category.
The question is how did it all get there?
Looking at the percentage, the growth for the first half of the month was roughly 2.97%. This would put the month growth, in MVest terms, at close to 6%. Since I started reviewing these numbers each month, I do not recall a month like this.
In fact, last month (November), the Orcas did very well, coming in with close to 5% growth for the month and now they are exceeding it.
So what is taking place?
In my opinion, we are seeing this group buying STEEM. According to @penguinpablo's weekly reports, there was 2.2.M SP powered up in the last 3 weeks. With the price of STEEM being so low, people are taking advantage. It appears the Orcas are the ones doing it.
This is an important point simply because this could be considered the "smart" money. Many of these individuals are developers on this blockchain. They are creating applications and working on different projects for the future. Basically, they are building businesses.
It helps to see them not only commit with their projects but also to power up. These are the people who have the technical understanding of what is taking place. They are also the ones who understand the dynamics with Steemit and the community. Yet, in spite of that, they are still buying.
Another thing that came to mind is the fact that accounts are changing categories throughout the month. On this chart, you can see that there are 307 Orcas in total. As of the end of last month, there were 298, meaning we added 9 so far this month. That is on pace for 17 or 18 for the month.
This is a high number. In the month of November, there were 10 added for the entire month.
So what gives?
It is possible there were a lot of accounts right on the line between Dolphin and Orcas, meaning regular daily activity pushed them over the threshold. However, such a big jump makes this unlikely.
What I think is a more plausible reason is that a number of larger Dolphins were doing the same thing. They are taking advantage of the low price of STEEM to add to their position. It is a fabulous opportunity for those with the means to increase their standing on the blockchain.
Hence, my conclusion is that a number of larger Dolphins and Orcas went on a buying spree. They are heavily invested in STEEM and see the price collapse as an opportunity. Their belief is that Steem has a great future.
One thing I want to add: this is STEEM that is powered up. It is imperative to remember, this is not a trade. When one powers up, it is a commitment for a total of 13 weeks before one can fully reverse the position. If one was buying STEEM for a quick double or triple, it would not be powered up but, rather, kept in liquid form.
For me, it is a telling sign when I see these numbers. Having people like this add to their position, and a few Orcas like @exyle already stated they bought more STEEM, shows the confidence they have long term in this blockchain.
And that might be the best indicator for the State of Steem.
If you found this article informative, please give it an upvote and resteem.
Anything mentioned in here is simply observation and conclusion drawn from it. Nothing here is considered to be financial advice.