The Best Indicator For The State Of Steem?steemCreated with Sketch.

in #busylast year

Before getting to the main point of this morning's article, I wanted to do my part as a public service announcement. Something took place that eluded me until late last evening. Evidently some already mentioned it but I feel an obligation to do the same.

If you are unaware, there was a difference of opinion @share2steem. This caused the lead developer to leave with the code, including the database. This is of concern for those who used the site with Steemconnect.

Anyone who did this, if you have not done so, please click on the following link to revoke access.

https://steemconnect.com/revoke/@share2steem.app

Also, for those who delegated to @share2steem, it is best to revoke that too.

https://steemconnect.com/sign/delegate-vesting-shares?delegatee=share2steem&vesting_shares=0%20SP

Here is @sebbbl's post about what took place.

https://steemit.com/share2steem/@sebbbl/update-about-the-current-state-of-share2steem

It is good to see team's respond in such a prompt fashion when something like this arises. We are going to see disputes within development teams as to the direction of projects. When something like this arises, swift action is helpful not only for the DApp, but the community at large.

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Source

So what is the best indicator about the State of Steem?

We heard the call last week with many noted Steemians on there. It was a show that really provided some insight into what people are thinking about.

Yesterday, I happened to take a look at @arcange's daily charts, something I tend not to until towards the end of the month. In looking at it, I noticed something very telling, at least in my mind.

This was the chart through 12-16.

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https://busy.org/@arcange/steem-statistics-20181216-en

Here is how the chart looked on through 11-30.

steem.png

https://busy.org/@arcange/steemit-statistics-20181130-en

Notice the Orcas. They had a jump of 2,327 MVests in roughly half a month. Remember, a MVest is equal to just under 500 Steem (497.118). In other words, you are looking at a whole lot of Steem Power being added to this category.

The question is how did it all get there?

Looking at the percentage, the growth for the first half of the month was roughly 2.97%. This would put the month growth, in MVest terms, at close to 6%. Since I started reviewing these numbers each month, I do not recall a month like this.

In fact, last month (November), the Orcas did very well, coming in with close to 5% growth for the month and now they are exceeding it.

So what is taking place?

In my opinion, we are seeing this group buying STEEM. According to @penguinpablo's weekly reports, there was 2.2.M SP powered up in the last 3 weeks. With the price of STEEM being so low, people are taking advantage. It appears the Orcas are the ones doing it.

This is an important point simply because this could be considered the "smart" money. Many of these individuals are developers on this blockchain. They are creating applications and working on different projects for the future. Basically, they are building businesses.

It helps to see them not only commit with their projects but also to power up. These are the people who have the technical understanding of what is taking place. They are also the ones who understand the dynamics with Steemit and the community. Yet, in spite of that, they are still buying.

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Another thing that came to mind is the fact that accounts are changing categories throughout the month. On this chart, you can see that there are 307 Orcas in total. As of the end of last month, there were 298, meaning we added 9 so far this month. That is on pace for 17 or 18 for the month.

This is a high number. In the month of November, there were 10 added for the entire month.

So what gives?

It is possible there were a lot of accounts right on the line between Dolphin and Orcas, meaning regular daily activity pushed them over the threshold. However, such a big jump makes this unlikely.

What I think is a more plausible reason is that a number of larger Dolphins were doing the same thing. They are taking advantage of the low price of STEEM to add to their position. It is a fabulous opportunity for those with the means to increase their standing on the blockchain.

Hence, my conclusion is that a number of larger Dolphins and Orcas went on a buying spree. They are heavily invested in STEEM and see the price collapse as an opportunity. Their belief is that Steem has a great future.

One thing I want to add: this is STEEM that is powered up. It is imperative to remember, this is not a trade. When one powers up, it is a commitment for a total of 13 weeks before one can fully reverse the position. If one was buying STEEM for a quick double or triple, it would not be powered up but, rather, kept in liquid form.

For me, it is a telling sign when I see these numbers. Having people like this add to their position, and a few Orcas like @exyle already stated they bought more STEEM, shows the confidence they have long term in this blockchain.

And that might be the best indicator for the State of Steem.


If you found this article informative, please give it an upvote and resteem.

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Anything mentioned in here is simply observation and conclusion drawn from it. Nothing here is considered to be financial advice.

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Very interesting analysis.
Whales have powered up by around 1000 MVests and Orcas have powered up by over 2300 MVests.
Given that Steemit is still selling to cover costs that means that other whales have more than made up for Steemit power-downs.

A great review and analysis @taskmaster4450 👌

If the orcas and whales of steemit are powering up then there must be a huge scope for steem future. No doubt they are the master of steem eco system and understand the current situation pretty well than others . Hope fully as they grow, they help the people below them to grow as well...through quality curation rather than delegating to bots for earning passive income. There are many minnows and red fish looking upward and keeping faith on existing eco system.

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Hi, I don't have business with share2steem, however it looks interesting to me know about the issue. After read your post I found this post https://steemit.com/share2steem/@share2steem/update-to-end-confusion in which they ask to users don't take rumors and stay in the platform... It looks confused to me

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I really do like reading this sort of assessment. I know at least one minnow that bought what he could this month :) I just wish I had more liquid money!

Thanks for another great report. Both halves. I appreciate that you help carry the word in a 'less than admirable' situation too.

Also looking at the crypto markets today. There seems to be a general move upwards. I am by no means an expert but maybe the big hitters know something we dont. It doesn't really bother me I just want steemit to continue as a very good social media. So the stronger steem is the better the future looks. Nice article and very informative. 😎

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Ever the purveyor of good news. This is very interesting and promising.

I have been buying a bit here and there lately as well as trying to stay active while the payouts are so good in terms of SP. With all the shenanigans on the mainstream platforms, we should be pushing this platform to them. Not sure the apps are really ready, but there is real pressure for this kind of tech out there.

Thanks for all the work you put into this stuff.

I love karma

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I am doing the same and i will be powering up to hit the Dolphin level at the very least!

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Hi, I don't have business with share2steem, however it looks interesting to me know about the issue. After read your post I found this post https://steemit.com/share2steem/@share2steem/update-to-end-confusion in which they ask to users don't take rumors and stay in the platform... It looks confused to me

Posted using Partiko Android

The quantity of redfishes continue to increase. The only thing that I'm worried is because many of them are from multiple accounts.
Thanks for sharing!
Cheers!

Having done my own research, I have been wanting to buy more steem but still had this little doubt lurking in mind. Now this insightful research of your has removed that little doubt from my mind.

Thanks @taskmaster4450.

The numbers also provide the potential of the “middle class” to take the reigns of the platform as time passes. Given the Steem that is liquid, it would only take the minnows and dolphins a couple of hundred dollars each to buy up the supply at these prices. Once the pressure from powerdowns subside, we could see great things start to occur in the ecosystem.

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Thank you so much for participating the Partiko Delegation Plan Round 1! We really appreciate your support! As part of the delegation benefits, we just gave you a 3.00% upvote! Together, let’s change the world!

This post has been included in today's SOS Daily News - a digest of all you need to know about the State of Steem.



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