A Couple More Months Of The Bear: Buying STEEM?
This is not financial advice, this is only my opinion. Do your own due diligence before investing in anything.
So when will be bear go into hibernation?
This is a question that everyone has been asking for a number of months. We now are getting some clarity.
While nothing is guaranteed, we should see the end of this run towards the end of February. Why that date?
The SEC recently announced they delayed the decision regarding the VanEck Bitcoin ETF. This means they have to make a decision on February 27, 2019.
Approval of an ETF is what many believe will pave the way for the next bull run. An instrument like this makes it easy for the masses, including institutions, to trade in cryptocurrency. At this time, we still see a link between Bitcoin and the alt-coins. Hence, a run in Bitcoin will, most likely, mean a surge in the alt-coins.
When I heard abut this I was reminded of Brian Kelly, one of the traders on CNBC's Fast Money. Unlike the rest of that network, this guy is optimistic about crypto and in favor of decentralization. He is a Wall Street guy so he gets both sides of the fence.
I was reminded of what he said back in July or August on one of the episodes. He stated that he felt the ETF approval was not going to come until February 2019 (appears he was right) and that will be the start of another bull run.
Now, I do not know how long it will take for the ETF to be set up after approval. Even if it is a couple months, we should see some upward move in the price. Once it goes live, there could be a massive surge of pent up buying.
Before that time, we could see some more downside. The FUD has not ended yet and the manipulation of these markets continue.
For this reason, I have my price targets to buy STEEM in order. I am comfortable buying on the way down and I will continue to do so. We are about 25 cents right now and my next buy level is 20 cents. After that I will look for another level closer to 10 cents.
To me, this is a great opportunity to load up on STEEM and power up my account. Since my long term view is optimistic regarding this blockchain, I feel confident that, at some point, the price of STEEM will be much higher than these levels. In the meantime, the extra SP increases my value as a stakeholder in this ecosystem.
In watching the charts put out each day by @arcange, it appears that the Orcas are taking full advantage of the price drop. They were up significantly in November and that is continuing into December. The question is are these people the smart money or the dumb ones? My view is they probably have a pretty good grasp on what is taking place on here.
The old saying is "buy when there is blood on the streets".
It appears we have that.
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This all seems to be assuming that the SEC approves the ETF in February...what if it doesn't?
Then the bear is probably still out. However, knowing the Wall Street game, odds are they got it down enough to clean up. Sure, it could get turned down but there is going to be a lot of pressure on the Commissioners with many of the Wall Street firms/banks opening trading desks.
There is also the opening of Bakkt and Nasdaq in 2019 which means there are a couple major players entering ie the exchanges. Couple this with a couple major firms establishing custodians to hold the keys (one of the reasons for rejection in the past), and I think it is a better than average chance that this gets approved.
The big concern i have is that when the major financial institutions get into crypto, they will just control the prices like they do with other assets. When the die hard crypto people say that the banks can't control crypto because it has limited supply and can't be printed, i don't think they understand how the banks do what they do. They create as much fake supply as they want to control the price.
Maybe I should write a post on how exactly they do that so people understand, but we can get all the institutional money into crypto without raising the price because none of them will actually own any crypto, it will just be the banks saying they own it.
I think you're totally right about this.
Never trust a banker ...
They are already in. They were in the second the futures market opened up. And that is when the full blown manipulation started. Like you said, no ownership, just "paper" contracts that they can keep making as they see fit.
As for the raising of the price, the VanEck fund is buying bitcoin...in their proposal they specifically state that plus the markets they will buy it on.
So at least this one is going to buy the asset.
I do not like the idea of paper Bitcoin... This might even lower the price of crypto because of unlimited supply.
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Page 4.
https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/cboebzx/2018/34-84231.pdf
like the silver and gold funds, there is no actual ownership of precious metals, it's all just contracts
A denial of the ETF in Feb would be a great opportunity for a final shakeout.
Can't see anything but a temporary spike until Lightning Network gets off their testnet and into production. They will need to be user friendly, with low transaction time and fees, in my opinion.
The next major spike should be the move towards critical mass adoption. For that it needs a ready scalable network in my estimation; for mass adoption to not be a prolonged flop.
My constant guess: The SEC will NOT approve it as always... they know that this could endanger the whole system.... cryptos would take over... the system is not screwed up enough as of now...
I think the SEC will approve this when the USD or the US are as screwed up as Venezuela...
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The deployment of custodial services from Coinbase and Fidelity as well as the Bakkt initiative will provide the SEC with some great data points that could lead the to make their decision early 2019.
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Hmm why pay management fee on ETF when you can hold your own BTC and not have any counter party risk while at it. The ruling may be good news and ETF may give the price a kick but that is all icing and not substance.
It allows the institutional money to get involved. Funds such as pension and other retirement accounts, as an example, cannot buy Bitcoin or crypto at this time.
This is what Wall Street is focused upon. There are a number of funds with hundreds of billions of dollars in them. Even .5% can add up.
I agree with your point. So for those of us that think BTC is here to stay will buy more.
For sure it is a better deal than high yield Argentina / Italy bond fund..
A much better deal than GE stock at this point.
In fact, GE might actually have a bigger drop than BTC at this point.
Yea I feel sorry for all those retirees that just took a hit on GE.
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Great weekly reminder.
Can’t get used to it.
Minus well ride along and get the best of it.
Keep on postin
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