Decision Trees are a technique that allows you to analyze sequential decisions based on the use of results and associated probabilities. They can be used to generate expert systems, binary searches and game trees.
The advantages of a decision tree are:
- It summarizes the starting examples, allowing the classification of new cases as long as there are no substantial modifications in the conditions under which the examples used for their construction were generated.
- It facilitates the interpretation of the decision taken.
- It provides a high degree of understanding of the knowledge used in decision making.
- Explains the behavior regarding a certain decision task.
- Reduces the number of independent variables.
- It is a great tool for controlling business management.
Decision trees are used in any decision making process, examples of which are given below:
- Binary search.
- Expert Systems
- Game Trees
Decision trees are generally binary, i.e. they have two options, although this does not mean that there cannot be trees of 3 or more options.
DECISION MAKING BY THE ADVISORY GROUP
Decision-making is the process by which a choice is made between the alternatives or ways to resolve different life situations, these can be presented in different contexts: at work, family, sentimental, business, etc., that is, at all times decisions are made, the difference between each of these is the process or the way in which they are reached. Decision-making basically consists of choosing an alternative from among those available, in order to solve a current or potential problem (even if no latent conflict is evident). Group decisions provide more complete information. There is some truth in the axiom that two heads think more than one. A group will provide a wide variety of experiences and perspectives to the decision-making process, which is not the case with an individual acting alone.
It is better in groups, as they generate more complete information and knowledge. By aggregating resources from diverse individuals, groups contribute more to the decision-making process, offering an increased diversity of views. This represents a greater opportunity to consider more methods and alternatives. The evidence indicates that a group will always outperform the best individual. In this way the groups generate high quality decisions.
Group decision making has many advantages and its resolutions can be very efficient, but these meetings must be managed by a true leader who can guide and control the judgments of other people, so that there is not so much opposition of ideas and can reach the desired goal.
One of the most obvious aspects of the crisis is serious emotional imbalance, with feelings of tiredness and exhaustion, feelings of helplessness, feelings of confusion, physical symptoms (palpitations, headaches, digestive disorders), anxiety, insomnia, disorganization of work functioning and in family and social relationships. When an individual feels that he or she is no longer able to cope with the situation, and feels that everything is going to end, as if there is nothing left to defend, it is when he or she requires the immediate help of the specialist or expert that will lead him or her to:
INTERVENTION IN CRISIS is the immediate and temporary, but active, entry into the situation of another person, or group, during a period of tension.
A crisis constitutes circumstances or situations that cannot be resolved by common resources to solve problems.
Uncertainty of the decision
Uncertainty is the condition in which an individual does not have the necessary information to assign probabilities to the results of alternative solutions. Decisions with uncertainty admit more than one possible outcome, for at least one of the alternatives, but the model does not include probabilities.
The set of results corresponding to each action has unknown probabilities, or they are meaningless because they are not repetitive facts.
If the probabilities are unknown, the case can be reduced to risk by experiment and observation, transforming the observed frequencies into a probability distribution.
If they do not make sense because they are not repetitive facts, they should be resolved with some criterion that reflects with a quantitative expression the subjective probability or degree of optimism. The management must make decisions with incomplete knowledge, through mental visions that cannot be quantitatively verified, although subjective probabilities can be assigned to the anticipated events, the resulting distribution of hopes cannot be established with objective certainty.
Routine decisions are standardized choices in response to relatively defined and known alternative problems and solutions. Employees often find a solution in established rules or standard operating procedures or, increasingly, in computer software, such as computerized airline reservation systems. Cleaning buildings, processing payroll receipts, packing and shipping customer orders, and conducting travel arrangements are just a few examples of tasks that require routine decisions.