We first have to start with the bad news! Both yesterday bets were lost. Silly me to place two bets on one game, and both more or less related to each other. A fresh wake up call for me, don't do this again.

Today 4 games will be played, let's see which one and what my bets will be!

Eupen vs Charleroi

The first game of today in the Jupiler Pro League. Both teams did loose their opening game of the competition. Eupen didn't stand a chance against current champion Club Brugge, while Charleroi did loose at home against Antwerp.

Normally Charleroi should have enough quality to win this game, but first let;s have a look what the models are saying?

In both models Charleroi is the favorite to win the game with a percentage close to 50! This should reflects odds of just above 2.0, the bookies are offering more than 2.6 for a Charleroi win.
The correct score prediction is in both models a draw with a 1-1 result as most likely score.
Both models also do expect more than 2.5 goals, and also the odds of Nitrogensports.eu are below the model. So lot's of value bets available. But I don't expect lots of goals in this one. Eupen played to naive away at Bruges, while Charleroi normally wins with 0-1 or 0-2.

I was doubting but I decided to go for the value bet that Charleroi will win (moneyline).

Antwerp vs Kortrijk

Antwerp surprisingly won their opening game away at Charleroi, while Kortrijk did loose at home from Anderlecht. So for Kortrijk the pressure is already on.

Both the models take Antwerp as favorite but both correct score predictions calculate a draw.

Last season Antwerp did win with 3-0 at home but lost away from home with 4-0. The also met each other in the cup, where Kortrijk won at home with 4-2. So, all last 3 games did end in an over 2.5. While the odds of the bookies are below 2.0, I still do believe that more than 2.5 goals will be scored.

Both teams will have completely different games than there opening game. I do expect that Antwerp will win and if they score early it can create a complete walk-over with a goal galore. Because Antwerp at home isn't quite the team to keep the 3 points home and withdraw the offensive department.

Last season 55% of the home games of Antwerp did result in an over, while Kortrijk had 70% of the away games with an over.

So the over bet it will be!

Cercle Brugge vs Lokeren

It has been a long time that Cercle Brugge played a home game in the Jupiler Pro League. It took some time for them to promote back to it. Their opening games was played at St Truiden, where they were able to result a 0-0 draw. They had no intention to play what so ever, it was keeping the nets clean period! The question is if they can't perform any better or were not willing to play. This games will give more insight!

Lokeren had an unlucky game against Genk. After 3 minutes Genk scored the first goal destroying all the plans Coach Maes had. The game ended in an ass whopping 0-4. And it could have been worse.

This is a difficult one to predict and my model does not give any results back because Cercle didn't play enough games in the Pro League in the past 3 seasons!

So I will stay away from it!

Gent - Zulte Waregem

The most interesting game of the evening. Both are contenders for a spot in playoff 1!
Gent did loose the opening game away at Standard with 3-2, while Zulte was controlling the games against Waasland but where surprised with the 93th minute equalizer of Waasland!

Gent did not loose only the 3 points at Standard but also their top transfer Odjidja got injured. He will not play today! Zulte Waregem doesn't have any injury concerns!

The model of the last 3 season do give the advantage to Gent with a stunning 63%, while the model of last season is more moderate and only calculates a win percentage for Gent of 46%.
Last season Waregem did win with 0-1, which was also played in the beginning of the season. Further in the competition Waregem collapsed, while Gent did surprise Belgium and still were able to play play off 1.

I do think that Gent will win this one and I am prepared to place a more risky bet. The Asian Handicap Gent -1, has odds of 2.4, worth the risk in my opinion!

My bets

Date	Bet	Stake	Odds	Result	Bookie
August 4, 2018	Over 2.5 ANT vs KOR	1	1.945	Pending	Nitrogensports.eu
August 4, 2018	Charleroi	1	2.642	Pending	Nitrogensports.eu
August 4, 2018	Gent -1	1	2.4	Pending	Nitrogensports.eu

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Monthly overview

Month	Bets	Won	Lost	Push	Staked	Profit	ROI
August, 2018	3	1	2	0	1	-1.23	-40.9%

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Detailed overview

Date	Bet	Stake	Odds	Result	Bookie
August 1, 2018	Genk -1.5	1	1.772	Won	Nitrogensports.eu
August 3, 2018	Over 2.5	1	1.825	Lost	Nitrogensports.eu
August 3, 2018	Standard -0.5	1	1.854	Lost	Nitrogensports.eu

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Good luck,
Peter

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