Sanctions: on land, air and water

in busy •  3 months ago

In the coming year, Russia will "celebrate" five years of life under sanctions. However, for the majority of the country's population this event will go unnoticed. After all, the ongoing mutual dive in the geopolitical field for a long time all pall. Only powerful information stuffing in the media, sometimes it is possible to attract public attention, but without any noticeable reaction. We have long been accustomed to living in these conditions, as the main changes occurred in the early stages. The fall of the national currency, the rise in prices and the decline in the range.

Of course, for some period everyone believed that sanctions are not for long and soon everything will return to normal. Having passed five stages of acceptance of inevitable we finally plunged into everyday problems and ceased to touch this subject in conversations. Even working in the defence industry, my colleagues and I practically do not touch upon this problem.

Today, it is possible to sum up a small and optimistic result that some of the tasks set by the government on import substitution have been fulfilled, and that it impossible to produce by itself, because of the technological lag, is bought in other loyal countries or bypassed through intermediaries. Of course, access to some financial instruments and technologies is still very limited, but under various slogans the budget is replenished at the expense of the population and the sale of state assets into the hands of a "close circle".

Nevertheless, the necessary margin of safety is attain. Industry has removed dependence on supplies from Ukraine, replacing all necessary production. This made It possible for the new year to "put a pig" to Poroshenko's government by introducing a number of sanctions restrictions, both in relation to natural persons and legal, affecting including the defense industry, which has historically been integrated with ours. It is clear that in the five years that we have been strenuously replacing Ukrainian producers, they could move in the same direction, but the next round of sanctions and information war was started exactly at the start of the presidential election.

Record as "shutdown" in the US, not allowed to operatively move the ball again on our field. Internal problems, contradictions and growing social tension every day plunges Americans into the inner world. And in General, there are no special variants of influence with the help of sanctions. Either point injections, such as the ban on the supply of composites for the MS-21 aircraft, or very radical and large-scale measures, in the spirit of disconnection from SWIFT.

Of course, possible delays in the LAUNCH of the MS-21 serial production are a good example of how restrictive measures on the high-tech market can affect important national projects. On the other hand, the slowness of state corporations and ambitious plans to create a large concern and an aviation cluster, an analogue of the Airbus Group, give a long time period for maneuvers. The first successful transactions to attract private capital to previously closed industries took place last year. The share of the state in some holdings decreased to 25% plus one share. Conditionally it is possible to speak about some temporary profit for the state budget if not to count the means spent earlier for financial improvement of many enterprises. However, investment attractive and profitable companies go under the hammer at private auctions. The problematic ones require a special approach and radical changes, which is impossible at the same time due to the high social burden, old fixed assets and personnel shortage. Whether it will be possible to implement them in the near future is a big question. On the one hand, the erosion of state participation is a way of avoiding sanctions, but to verify this method in practice, it is necessary at least to wait for the final decision on RUSAL in a week.

Foreign media is increasingly difficult to accuse Russia of all" mortal sins " against the background of internal and external problems. More precisely, the information war does not stop for a minute, but there is no interest in it. This serial series with constant self-replays and blunders, so all bored that no longer collects the target audience. The new act with the "muscle-flexing" and quickly fizzled out. Sanctions have simply become a routine and a new reality of modern life.

Of course too strong and financially boundless running machine, gaining momentum. The path of provocation long and well trodden. However, for most of us it will remain a kind of momentary spectacle, against the background of systemic internal problems, stagnating economy, rising prices and a decline in real incomes. Only one unanswered question remains rhetorical. What could be today the life of the average compatriot in the world without sanctions.

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