US economic prognosis

in #busy2 years ago

Based on the fact we are undergoing Quantitative Tapering, weak housing market data and record high corporate debt levels in a rising rate environment, I think that there will be at most a few more quarters that maintain the appearance of normal. I am pricing in a drop in equities before that happens. Not financial advice, but LEAP 2020/2021 puts are looking good here. Full disclosure I have puts on retail, real estate, airlines, tech, and energy. I hope I am wrong for the sake of ordinary people, but maybe it is better to be defensive about the currency strength rather than asset valuations, so I agree with the Fed moving to tighten.

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