Is Brexit making Brits buy British-made cars?
Brits are famously non-partisan about buying cars. They'll buy anything they fancy, which makes the British market a mecca for foreign brands who export to Britain. But has Brexit changed all that?
A few weeks ago, the year-to-date figures for October 2016 UK car sales came out, and of course the figures included four months of post-referendum sales. Total sales were ahead of last year, but the detail was interesting.
Here are the top ten sales for the year to October 2016:
- Ford Fiesta 103, 945 (down 10.88% on the year to Oct 2015)
- Vauxhall Opel Corsa 68,831 (down 11.64% on 2015)
- Ford Focus 61,233 (down 17.21% on the year to Oct 2015)
- VW Golf 59,474 (down 7.44% on the year to Oct 2015)
- Nissan Qashqai 55,238 (up 1.8% on the year to Oct 2015)
- Vauxhall Astra 49,756 (up 9.38% on the year to Oct 2015)
- VW Polo 47,161 (down 3.3% on the year to Oct 2015)
- Mini 39,913 (up 4.37% on the year to Oct 2015)
- Mercedes Benz C-Class 37,918 (up 0.4% on the year to Oct 2015)
- Audi A3 37,521 (down 10.95% on the year to Oct 2015)
The Nissan, the Mini and the Vauxhall Astra are made in the UK. The rest are made in Germany. The Opel Corsa staff in Germany have already been put on a shortened workweek as a result.
Given that overall car sales have increased compared to 2015, what have people been buying instead? LandRover (also British made) has seen increases across it's range of SUVs, as has Hyundai (Korean) and Honda (British plant).
What does this all mean?
It means that for the first time in 20 years, Brits are going patriotic when buying cars and want to support car plants in the UK, rather than in Europe. The above figures represent just 4 Brexit months out of the ten months to October. If this pattern continues, Germany should see a sharp drop in exports to the UK, which will depress their economic activity. That strengthens Britain's hand as it goes into the Brexit negotiations.
Just to update on this - car buying has continued to shrink in the last year. On March it was down a further 15%, and it's now starting to affect the eurozone economies.
I understand that purchases by private buyers are down and the market is being maintained by fleet sales. That's probably the reason the top ten shows declines, the small hatchbacks tend to be bought by private individuals.