Technical Analysis

in bullshit •  9 months ago

Reminder: If technical analysis worked, its practitioners would be making money doing that all day instead of trying to become notable by making or selling videos and courses.

You’re better off reading tea leaves; at least then you have a cup of tea to drink while you make random bets.

See also: dowsing, acupuncture, chiropractic

The null hypothesis is your friend, even if it doesn’t seem that way. :)

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Ah. I think you'll find the whales are actively supporting the spam, but simply using different accounts to hide that they're publishing it (e.g. haejin and ranchorelaxo)

Sometimes there are bad tea leaves, sometimes it’s just bad hygiene.

Lol. I don't trade, but the whole idea that prices are driven by arcane algorithms seems wrong unless it's bots doing the trading. They don't take account of things like mad articles that cause people to buy or sell, but people are desperate for some magic formula to bring them riches. Keep chasing those rainbows

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I mean this genuinely....not to be a dick.....but that's an infantile understanding of what goes into technical analysis. It just shows that you do not actually understand what you are criticizing by making the statements that people don't take things into account, and blanketing any other ideas on analysts. When performing any type of technical work, even a physical technical skill, it is generally your goal to be as well informed about all aspects of the skill or subject so that you might achieve the best possible ending with the given circumstances. But as you did first state, you don't trade. Which makes me wonder why have such a stance on something that isn't relevant to you, and beyond that, you are not well informed on. Again....not trying to be a dick, just shed some light that there is certainly more to...well...almost anything, than you think from afar, especially if it isn't in your wheelhouse to begin with.

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It's an opinion, but I accept its not based on extensive research. It's a fact that people look for patterns that may not be there and always have. I know a few people have found systems that work for them, but they probably keep them secret for obvious reasons. I consider trading to be a form of gambling and that's just not my thing.

I will concede that people en masse can be predictable, so some movements could be foreseen. Just need the right algorithm and it won't always be right.

Touch wood and keep hold of that rabbit foot ;)

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Generally what people see as some sort of archaic technique is really just math, plain and simple. If some people assign a special value to that math....well that's up to them. But just because the number 7 is seen as lucky, and the number 7 appears in your formula, doens't necessarily mean that you believe anything further than the fact that the number 7 appears and works in your formula. I know what and who you are referencing.....just clarifying that those of us that see what's called the "golden ratio" in charts doesn't mean we named it the "golden ratio" or put it there because it's supposed to be magical....it comes in a way that is much more organic than that. Something more like..."hmm...well holy shit...that's weird, the fibonacci ratio seems to keep repeating itself in this situation.....hmmmmm....."

And just from my personal side of things, there is no good analyst that thinks they are correct all the time, or that any ONE formula solves any or all situations. The idea is to be as aware as possible, based on pattern recognition, and in some cases, whatever other techniques used (personally I find elliott wave to be the most accurate). And being aware means that you are never certain, it is always evolving, and you are always preparing for multiple possibilities while trying to nail down the 2 or 3 most probable of the possible.

Just as an example....this is from yesterday, an an analyst here. If you were new to investing, and especially if new to crypto investing....this kind of accuracy is account saving....

Monday Night/Tuesday Morning:
tuesmorn.png

Price action through the day:
tueseve.png


Coming in green you might have bought on that rise, not knowing that a correction is about to ensue....then in a panic, you sell at about a $1000/coin loss. However....awareness of the probable pathway would allow you to relax through the correction knowing it will more than likely continue to follow the laid out pathway based on its current accuracy. Or even better than relaxing through it, wait for a low and buy. How else would you know that correction was coming, or that bounce was coming? Guessing is as good as guessing is in a situation that has 36 retracing possibilities (literally). That's where experience comes into play....and that's why this particular analyst is able to lay out the days price action before it happens. And of course he's not correct every time, but he is very very good, and very very accurate due to experience.

It's a tool to be used, and when gambling as you say, and not incorrectly, you want to use the best strategy or tool available.

If being successful in the markets were as rare as winning the lottery, I would be more with ya, but it's shown over and over throughout time that certain people or strategies have their finger on the pulse....at least for a that time period. Nothing is static, and all analysis must adapt. Thanks for engaging, I realized how old this post was after I posted the last comment.

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When are we having a picture of your TA Crew holding a piece of paper with the steem name on it, like in #introduceyourself ?

i would like to know starjuno, haejin, the 23th most powerful whale ranchorelaxo and who knows who else is making the magic happens :D

TA is mostly part of some market manipulation scheme.

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food for thought

Hahaha, I always wondered about this, like why put in so much effort if you had the ability to use that time to game the day-trading scene. You KNOW what's going to happen, it's like telling the future. I'm sure most are just kind billionaires trying to help the rest of us.

Dowsing is too legit to quit apparently

Truer words ^^

Ah, I think you're forgetting the Magic 8 Ball..... I've heard it has a TA success rate of 80%.

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The Magic 8 Ball is the tool every trader needs!

"Will the USD/EUR go up by the end of the week?"
"Better not tell you now"

I partially agree with you. However, you should keep in mind that other people are looking at the same charts you are looking at and, probably, are making the same assumptions. That is basically why TA works (not always, obviously). However, people selling courses are doing that beacuse there's someone who wants to buy these courses (and waste money...)

What I learned with crypto is that technical analysis alone doesn't work and markets, sometimes, simply act weird.

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If it doesn’t work consistently, it doesn’t work.

Technical Analysis works, why wouldn't they want to make more money teaching it? Just adds to their trading power.

TA works very well if you buy the coins you're pumping immediately before you publish your forecasts and sell them again after your followers all pile on and drive up the price.

@sneak just comnt for humble request you spn my cmnt on your previous post so plz remove it.. i did very hardwork on my account to reached my RP 18 to 36 ... and your 1 spn make it 9 then plz remove it...i wll never cmnt on your post in future ,,,thanks

That is a bold move
:))))

i agree with you.good writting.

Soooo true. And keep then neg votes coming. But where is Rancho in all this, has he started to Relaxo?

It looks like TA in crypto more likely placing bets, so unpredictable patterns. Hope more people will finally realised this. Long term investments strategy only the way, still super high risk of losing everything or gaining lots of X

Completely right.

lol When you tell someone how it is
TGub8g2.gif

Thanks You @rajeeb

Can you give me a favor? Thanks a million!

It works. What doesn't work is making minute by minute price projections as if one is a high frequency trading platform, drawing random shapes on a chart that arbitrarily define future trajectory, and throwing around the word "profit" in post titles oh so often to imply that the benefits outweigh the risks. Plenty of technical traders out there that do well in the markets and share their thoughts/analysis openly, focusing on more longer term time frames that give a better grasp of the full picture, with a consideration of fundamentals when appropriate.

nice article..thanks for sharing...keep it up

I agree that it is useless in crypto, but in other financial sectors i do see the meaning of a TA. Just because most of the time history repeats. The only problem with crypto is that it's really volatile and that there is almost no history.