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RE: 6k closer than 16
Well I hope the 6k dip will come, that would be better - we could all buy in and feel great about that, and so could all the newcomers, deal of a lifetime - it might also start wobbling upwards now and that so slowly that everybody would still be feeling bad and waiting for that dip to come, just at a later date... please scroll down and see what I posted underneath a minute ago, the picture with the frame - 6k looks rather likely but there is resistance in between. 4k is not likely but even that is possible - don't think so though,
Less than that isn't really... apex of the triangle and all that. FUD is getting lighter, so maybe the governments will now let us have a year...
Interestingly it hit $6000.01 on binance and is now holding above 7k for the last two days.... Too early to call but but it seems that 6k might have been exactly the amount the powers-that-be wanted it before pulling up on the controls....
It could turn out to be a bull trap, but the problem with driving an equity too low is that the chart would be effectively broken.
Bitcoin is more and more in the hands of the wealthy, and here's a common trait among the wealthy people I've known:
They understand the benefit of taking care of their toys.
A responsible person can get years of use from a thing by being careful with it. Or, you get one fun moment, by smashing it to bits.
With the poor and unwashed (myself included), we tend to have zero impulse control. We're rough with our things. We break stuff. We make messes. We eat more than we should, right? What's really sad is that we rarely learn from our mistakes because we tend to point the blame for our mess at something external....
This is in plain sight when you look at these crypto coin charts for the past year. No thought toward the future. Pure greed (which is universal) combined with a complete lack of perspective/history/longevity ( poor folk mentality).
Bitcoin is probably in better hands now than it was two months ago. Patient hands. Experienced chart makers that will paint the story they want it to tell, which usually involves making a lot of money over many years.
It's not ideal because now only a few are privy to what those plans entail and when they'll be implemented, but it's better than a populist mind flying the plane with no idea where to go.
That's not completely accurate: there was always destination: moon!
This might all sound ironic because here I am pointing at the wealthy for this downturn, but you'd have to be blind and naive to ignore the signs that bitcoin has changed hands. The only people who bought below 7 were people who had money to spend! The folks who got in with a thousand rode their holdings all the way down and didn't have any money to spend.
I'm saying it's probably a good thing to have old money in the pot.
What you write in your first five paragraphs is basically what Maurice Samuels wrote about in "You Gentiles," it so happens that I was having a discussion about that on minds and google, where history and future tend to be real issues... the likeness is amazing ;)
For the little-educated Percivals, perspective will remain tangential at best because these things simply must be taught.
Humans can't even walk, much less talk if not taught well... this is why majorities are and will remain such a cheap resource for the Happy Few, and why you can nicely see this at work on the charts.
I'm not entirely sure Bitcoin is in different hands now as the remarkable volume these last days likely came from little people who had fled into fiat - it would have been stored at the exchanges... they would have been able to make some nice earnings these last days but should definitely sell now, and buy again in a few days... or maybe not ?
I still expect another dip, and hodlers will be hodlers.
Makes no difference to them how low, as long as it rises again - and the question is simply how fast that is going to happen.
There was and is the impression that large Wall Street entities will not yet buy in but keep riding the FUD train, hoping to keep Crypto low - I don't believe that can work out any longer after all the prolonged fear and what the SEC said - people get used to it.
So I'm hoping for another crass drop and ideally a capitulation volume candle, and then maybe the real players will come out of the brush to dominate the game even more ? But surely they would then want the curves heading upwards ?
We can only guess.
I think if Crypto behaves bit more like the stock market, that won't be such a bad thing for most.
The folks who got in with a thousand rode their holdings all the way down and didn't have any money to spend.
I hope not !! And if so I hope they will just ride back up again.
There were so many chances on the way down to get in and out, in and out and actually add a bit rather than lose all the time - but sure, not everybody likes that sort of thing.
In any case patience is a virtue, and we certainly agree it must be learned ;)