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RE: Bitcoin Analysis - July 24, 2018 - BTC ETF Decisions in August and September
Great analysis mate. How do you think alts will behave over the next couple of months?
Great analysis mate. How do you think alts will behave over the next couple of months?
Depends on the alt. They're still ultimately a function of BTC, but some do better than others when BTC rallies. I think many of the alts have bottomed so long as BTC doesn't do a continued bear market.
What I mean is we have seen mostly at the start of this year alts generally moving with the direction of BTC. But with the recent run up in BTC, we have seen alts generally going down as was the case late last year with the BTC bull run. And we all know what happened in December when the money flowed from BTC into alts. Do you think this is likely to happen again or will alts still be generally correlated with BTC still?
Assume history will repeat until proven otherwise.
When BTC bull runs again, I expect BTC to run first and then the alts to lag and eventually if BTC does well, it eventually flows back into the alts.
The reason they were crashing in-tandem this year and rallying in-tandem was mainly because it was a bear market. If BTC tanks, then people know the alt will tank, they dump their alt into BTC, dump BTC too. But usually in a crash, the alts would always get hit worse, because money was flowing out the alts first, and then into BTC, and then into USD.
If BTC begins to run in a real bull market, most alts wont run that well just like in 2017... until BTC runs enough that the market favors re-balancing into the alts, in which case alts would do great. There's not panic in a bull market, and the bull market can't run unless BTC runs... so it has to hit BTC first. Even in this latest BTC move, a lot of the alts have not kept pace.