BTC red alert! - updated chart

in btc •  3 months ago

EDIT 2: BTC is not moving. It is far to quiet right now. This cannot last forever and implies a bigger move (probably to the downside, even though it does not really fit my preferred counts). WXYX2Z comes to mind again, but such a small wave X2 would be very unlikely and implies extreme weakness in the market...

EDIT: I checked the rules of an X triangle again and there is indeed a rule violation in the last picture. This triangle will likely look like this instead:

triangle.JPG

Wave e is allowed to break the downtrend line, but it cannot move above wave c.

I actually like this scenario, because it means that the correction will likely be over in November once the weak hands have thrown in the towel... stay tuned...

BTW: Steem is trading below the value of SBD again for the first time in months...

steem.JPG
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Updated above:

We are now facing red alert signals in BTC. This could be a completed abcde triangle for wave X. If correct, that means we are heading much lower... target 3500-3000.

A wave 1 and 2 impulse (my primary count of the last few posts) is now unlikely...

It looks right, BUT: I need to check up the rules for X triangles again. I think there is a rule violation in this scenario.

BTCalert.JPG

EDIT: This count is not valid. Wave d is not allowed to move below wave b...

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Recovery phase is going to start soon heading towards as btc dominance increasing from last 2 weeks

holy shit there is no end to it. I´m still not in the red, but if it keeps dropping I might see red on the weekend. Wow, never thought I would say this.

Looking at XRP/USD on the daily chart, it's never been so oversold since May 2016... I'm buying this one. This is gonna bounce real hard when it does.
EDIT: And on the weekly, the last time it went that low (february 2017), it had bounced from $0.0051 to $0.083 one month later...

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The next bounce will very likely be only a short term bounce.

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Profits can still be made off it! ;)

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Multiple ALTS look oversold - I wonder where this BTC correction, if validated, will leave us with them. Will they follow the BTC trend or look to reverse?

Holy shit! But whatever will happen, I will HODL!
Thanks for your skilful analysis.

The market manipulation of BTC and then taking the rest of the markets with them is really insane... I hate the fact every other altcoins' success is dictated by Bitcoin's success... this shit needs to change soon. Guess I will get prepared to buy when its much lower. I do not think its wise to sell any cryptos at these levels now short term because we do not know when this will fully recover... until the ETF is approved, I see no way getting out of this eternal bear market.

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There is no manipulation (at least no big scale manipulation). We had an extended 5th wave. This means we went up too much too fast. In 95% of all cases when this happens, the correction will be huge. This is necessary for the trend to continue.

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Its good to have a heads up on that. Next time there is a spike up in price like we had from $6700 to $7800, I will be taking some profits in fiat to mitigate the loss and buy back in when its super bearish again. And what do you mean by the 5th wave exactly? Its related to TA?

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Yes. Elliott Wave TA. Every wave cycle moves in 5 waves, then 3 waves in the opposite direction (called correction). If the the 5th wave is much longer than wave 1 and 3, a big correction is basically guarantued.

"DANGER WILL ROBINSON....DANGER".....oh well...just another day in crypto land....

Does your update based on the rules violation increase the relative likelihood that this is still a 1-2?

It seems to me that bearish sentiment has really picked up the last couple of days and I wonder whether that could be a contrarian indicator here, as long as the 1-2 isn’t officially invalidated at $5715 or so.

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No, the probability is below 10% for such a deep wave 2. Yes, 1-2 is not invalid yet, but one of the two only bullcounts left...

The chart does not care about EW rules really. A single person can violate all those rules any time,
just openening or closing a huge position. And single person's decisions does not have to follow any rule. It can be random from objective perspective.

People who read this blog, check this out:

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Yeah people. Go ahead and watch a 1 hour video about market psychology to find out that the rules of EW don't apply. Seems reasonable.

I didn't get through the first 10 minutes, because this video is sooo boring and useless to me.

Wondering where BTC is on your chart? Did we hit A and are on our way to B or is BTC still between d and e?

Also may I make a suggestion: could you please consider posting a new blog rather than updating a previous one? SteemIt doesn’t provide notifications on updates, only on new postings.

Many thanks.

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Right, I normally do that. It was just such an insignificant update, that I did not feel like posting 2 lines without a pic...

On my preferred counts, BTC is either in wave e of X now, or wave B of Z (not shown in any picture yet).
If we see a now low under d, I have to reconsider my X triangle count.

I will post about the next significant move for sure, as BTC has not moved in 7 days...