BTC morning update 15.03.18
The bear flag was resolved bearishly as expected in my last post. White wave 3 of C seems to be done or will be done very soon.
When we see a sharp bullish reversal, we will know that white wave 3 is done and wave 4 has started. It could push to price of BTC to 8,500-ish again. But this wave 4 will be a bulltrap. Wave 5 down will decide if BTC has finally established a stable uptrend or if we need a new low below 6,000$.
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Thanks for the great Technical Analysis. After this 3, maybe a short 4, down to 5, and then...?
I've been watching the charts pretty closely for about a month, now. I'm not great at TA, and not much to point out other than a gut feeling that we're at or close to a bottom. There's a lot of "blood in in the water" right now, so it's time for the sharks to eat. I just deployed some cash. If it drops to $6K, or $4K, I still won't be worried. Here's why...
The current Relative Strength Index is showing BTC as very oversold. I'm liking that indicator. We may go "sideways" for another couple of weeks - consolidation and uncertainty have been the order of the day, for the time being.
A lot of big money is just waiting on the sidelines right now to get into this space - futures funds, hedge funds, mutual funds, etc. They're running into bottlenecks with exchanges and blockchain businesses that are literally being overwhelmed with the red tape involved in adapting to this new class of assets - there are already some existing "hoops" that big money has to jump through to offer crypto investments. And, they're in the process of working through that red tape. I'm hearing that April will be the month that a lot of this 'big money' gets their $#!t worked out. Overall market-cap is likely to make some sharp upwards jumps. Also, businesses are also in beginning stages of adopting blockchain for their payrolls. If you can skip all of the FUD and day-to-day bad news, look a few months down the road & cryptos are at bargain prices right now.
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RSI is a useless indicator. It can stay in overbought or oversold territory literally forever.
As you can see I am not using a single indicator for my predictions. Just price, patterns and a occasional look at the volumes.
I agree with the rest of your statement though. Big money investors are selling to buy back cheaper soon. I am not worried as well. If we have to see another low for them to buy, so be it.
Like I said, I'm not great at TA. I use RSI as one of my indicators on short-term trades, only. We did get a "bump" last night. It may not be the "big" turning point but, so far - in my limitied experience - I do find there is often an upswing for a short trade when the RSI dips very low. I see it as a more risky short trade that has worked well for me, so far. Of course, I could easily screw-up my stop-loss one time (I do them manually, not automatically), get burned by this, and have to re-think what I'm doing. I also watch the 21 & 55 DEMA's for crossovers - but that's not perfect, either. I'm trying to learn candles - and am not much into E-waves at all, yet. To be honest, they seem a bit over-complicated to bother with. Do you have any suggestions for me?
A lot of my buy-in last night was based on how far BTC has fallen in such a short time, the current cycle of FUD seems to be driving the price down a bit more than it needed to, and the fact that there seemed to be a decent support level at around $8,300. Yeah, it blew right through that support - but made a quick uptick soon after. And, I was able to "buy the dip" at $7,870 - and we're back up over $8,300. IDK if it will last, though. I don't think anyone really knows right now. There seems to be a lot of people calling "neutral" for the next month, followed by an upward move. I could take about... $75 profit for one night's work, but I think I may just HODL and enjoy the bumpy ride. I like the "climate" that we're in right now - despite the FUD and panicky news-cycle, I do think it's part of the big money's plan to shake out weak hands and buy-in at a good low spot. Problem is, we don't know what that low spot is going to be ahead of time. People waiting to buy in at $6K or $4K might never get that chance. If it does go lower, I'll deploy more cash to make my current buy-in more profitable. It's not the best strategy out there, but I feel safer with incremental buy-ins and profit-taking. It works well for me, without completely fraying my nerves. I thrive on the tension, though - so, I like it.
Good strategy if you are willing to loose it all. Just don't sell low.
I am not buying BTC until there is a clear uptrend going on. I want a safe buy and not the lowest price possible. The potential return is bigger in altcoins, unless you manage to buy more BTC @ 1000$.
If 20000$ was cycle wave 1 a drop to 1000$ would not invalidate the bullish count. But that would take years.
Learn to see every invested penny as "money already lost" the moment you click buy, and you will never have a nerve wrecking experience again.
Good advice on what perspective to take. Thank you.
I am now at the point where anything I trade is "mine" and I can cover everything with precious metals I have stacked. More than anything, having my own stack of silver is what eliminates too much worry for me - but, I don't necessarily want to have to cash that out right now to cover losses. Of course, I doubt I'd lose "everything" right now - the crypto market seems like it's "here to stay," at least for the next year- probably longer.
As far as ALT-coins go, I think 30% of them are outright scams and 80% of them will ultimately fail. I called out BitConnect as a scam 5 months before it fell apart. Picking the right ones will be the key. It's easy to call ETH, LTC, Dash, Monero, and several others as being well-established. I'm looking closer at DOGE and MaidSafe. Everyone in the space seems to have their favorites.
I'm also into LTC. The longer I follow it, the more I like it. LTC seems to be outperforming BTC, just slightly, however and whenever I look at it. I think it has more potential upside and several good use cases. Those "slight" advantages over BTC could end up multiplying more profits over the long term. What do you think of LTC?
I like LTC too. I always do my transactions with it. Low fees, fast transactions and a bullish looking chart. I will make an update about it soon.
I am the most bullish for STEEM though. But that might take a few years to start exploding to >50$
This correction seems to be taking it’s fine but previous corrections have been as deep as 80% of previous highs. This would take us as low as $4000 so we could have a way to go yet. However, even if we get to $4000, that’s still 4x higher than btc was just over a year ago so still pretty good.
good analysis.
i think this month the price won't stable,next month we will see something better.
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Nice post man
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