BTC big pic update 17.04.18
Today I wanna talk about the BTC big pic again. There are two main scenarios right now.
One is immediately bullish:
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And the other one is shortterm bullish, but midterm bearish. In all cases though, we will likely see a new bull market of gigantic proportions in 2019/20.
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If you think this to be useful information:
Feel free to use and share my charts, but please mention me, @ew-and-patterns as the author. Otherwise it is considered plagiarism and I will flag you and advise my friends to do the same.
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Great update and I was looking for this (the big pic) from you for some time.
What would help to get some coordinates like for the trend line which you see must hold for the case pure bull.
Are there any other clear signals which would confirm the one or the other scenario? Any probabilities you could add to those scenarios?
Concerning the coordinates/dates of this trendline have a look at this:
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If we see 5 waves up to the level of black wave 3 (instead of 5waves up for black 1, 3waves down for black 2 and 5waves up for black 3, that would be a huge warning sign for a trend reversal.
It is a bit difficult to explain. I will draw it when the time has come.
This trendline and 6500$ are the things to keep an eye on for now.
I think I get the idea - if we overshoot that is a sign for being unsustainable.
Thanks for the big picture - Just being curious. I thought a trend line need three touch points to be considered relevant. How is your view on that?
Yes. If a trendline has 3 touch points, like the lower one, the market considers it valid. The acceleration trendline does not have three touch points yet. If wave 2 bounces off of it like I expect, then good. For now it is only a hypothetical line where I expect to find some support.
I am liking the bullish scenario. The longer term bull scenario (19/20) does playbinto the wider narrative though, with several big investors talking of prices above $200k in the 2020-2022 timeframe.
It would still fit this timeframe if it drops to 4000 first ;-) I am neutral at the moment while slightly favoring the bullish scenario.
The only way I can think of the bearish scenario playing is BTC being exposed for its incompetence and better functioning alt-coins gaining way more interest from people. I think eventually this would happen. I do think BTC could hit $500 before the end of 2020. But people getting that smart this quick seems too odd. So I'm making my bets on the scenario on top.
Thanks for the update.
Hi, great post, worth a follow. Looking forward to some more of your stuff.
I have a theory we are on an up trend for the rest of 2018 but come 2019, when recession hits and there is wide spread fear, risk off and cash parking in the market, scenario two might come true. Bitcoin has yet to be tested in a down economy.
BTC is likely to explode in value in any USA, Europe or China recession. The money needs to go somewhere. It is too expensive for big institutions and hedgefunds to stay in cash.
Yes that could be true too. We shall soon see!
We are going up up and away!
Timely and quality piece, this should of easily made it to the trending page as I am sure quite a few people would find this information, quite useful... The post is probably just in the nick of time for some. Thanks man.
que bien ,yo no pierdo las esperanzas, gracias por la información
Well the future of the BTC seems to be unpredictable. It can be, like you. He says to go up and then go down. I believe that this will be the dynamic but that it will finally be sustained in time. Thanks for guiding in this difficult topic.
Cool post!
Really seems like everything wants to go up for now...
But, what about STEEM and SBD?