Brexit Will Never Happen

Upon news of the Brexit vote, markets around the world crashed. The prospect of the British leaving the European Union has spooked investors and the public alike. The result came a huge surprise. And for exactly this possibility, I stayed out of the markets.

But it is the British politicians themselves most scared of what comes next. The morning after the results, Prime Minister David Cameron announced that he would not formally withdraw from the EU. Instead, he would resign and let his successor do the honours. And this isn't happening until September at the earliest.

Meanwhile, the face of the leave campaign Prime Minister Boris Johnson has called for delaying the formal exit process. He wants informal negotiations first. But the EU is not having it.

On both sides, British politicians are employing delay tactics. Now if they were really intent on leaving the EU, why delay? What does this accomplish?

Elections follow a similar pattern. Immediately after an election takes place is when the mandate is strongest. This is when the winner can implement whatever they want to with minimal opposition. As time goes on, the mandate weakens. Opposition grows. The honeymoon period ends.

And this is exactly what the British politicians are hoping for. They are hoping that over the next couple of months, sentiment will turn against the Brexit. And this would mean they could hold another vote - either in the form of a general election or a second referendum.

Only if a second vote confirms the first will Brexit really be on the table.

The truth is that the whole referendum never had anything to do with actually leaving the EU. David Cameron called for the vote to quell internal opposition within his own party. Boris Johnson campaigned for the leave vote primarily so he could become the next Prime Minister. Neither of these men have any desire to leave the EU, regardless of the result of the vote.

In a matter of months, the country will chose a new prime minister. The Brexit vote will slowly fade into the background. The politicians will find a way to avoid implementing it. And people will forget and move on with their lives.