The Brexit question(s)

Introduction

Fist off let's clarify what this post is. The time left for Britain to negotiate on terms of a deal to leave the EU single market is getting really close. I am deeply concerned about the amount of answers the leaders gave us, and the propositions they made so far. We have so many empty promises left behind and many less and less optimistic ones remaining. If you have any opinions or can give me any answer about the questions please do so in any way. What more if you support/supported leave I beg you to give me some explanations for any of them.

The referendum

The UK had a referendum whether the citizens want to stay or leave the EU on 23rd June 2016. That is something what I will not challenge ever, although I don't even understand how this question get this serious to get a referendum on it. At the time it took place I've just arrived in London a few weeks before. At that time it did not strike me so badly, but as time goes I try to understand what happens around me and it terrifies more and more.

The questions

So let me just leave my questions on this matter here, or at least what I could think of so far.

1. Why did The British people got this far at the first place from the EU as an idea, and the people coming from there?

   In my view the UK was and will be for a long time the most European country. By turning their back to the EU leaves me in a true questioning in my believes and identity. I am definitely sure many others especially living here will or already are have the same issue.

2. How will the politicians be able to maintain peace?

   The one if not the biggest achievement (IMO it is) of the EU that we had no war between the member countries for so many decades. It is unprecedented in Europe's history, and if this would be the only benefit of the Union I would still support it wholeheartedly.

3. How will the UK be able not to be a puppet of the US?

   If the UK faces the world trades as promised there might be a lot closer relation with the US which has quite a power to influence any other countries (if not to bomb them). Not only the UK but any of the EU countries can only be powerful if they stick together. This is a serious pole for other big nations. If Europe is fragmented I can not see any real power in any of it's member countries on their own. If anyone seeks for the cheaper goods from the US bare in mind their standards, let's say politely, not European.

4. How will the UK be able to resist the Russian influence and prevent a war with them?

   We can see these days how badly Russia tries to manipulate elections (Trump, or just the Facebook scandal recently), not to mention the Salisbury attack. This influence can be taken down with cross border cooperation of secret services, without invoking a war with anyone. (That is not only something UK can not afford, but what I am against in my whole life.)

5. How will Britain keep it's identity with increasing migration if it is about to open the borders for other countries too?

   Currently the UK faces free movement only from the 27 EU ones, but about to open up for a whole lot more to unleash a potential for more workforce. If that happens it can bring security dangers (as we've seen already quite some terror attacks), as well as the cultural influence of the scale of migration that is proposed. With a bigger scale of migration it is likely the British identity as we know it might fade away.

6. Why would be another referendum not be democratic even about the same question?

   The country had a referendum about something that after a year of searches on my own and fading promises from politicians, if I can absolutely honest, I can't/couldn't even understand what the question was about. If I would be eligible to vote here I would vote on stay if not for more than not knowing what the other option means. If the argument is the "we had a vote, get on with it", let me point out you British friends had pretty much the same question answered on 5th June 1975. If it's not democratic to have a referendum once we know what the outcome of the decision would be, or just the sake of having a majority backing the issue, then I would also call the 2016 referendum also undemocratic since the country have already decided once about the EU membership. (Not to mention why do we hold general elections and not have a ruler voted until their retirement.)

7. How can the UK combat the issue of pensions paid to elderly people living in EU countries whilst the contribution from EU workers may decline if the freedom of movement is limited?

   So many British people like to leave for longer vacations or just simply move to southern countries for many reasons. This in my opinion is not at all regrettable. Many countries are a lot cheaper to live in, and at elderly age none of us really want to chase our wages any more just to have a pension what we can maintain our peaceful life further on.

8. If the country gets back the control over fishing who will it be sold with export taxes, and how will it compete with a lot cheaper ones from other countries?

   If we count in the fishing industry is already too big and the fish population in the seas can not maintain with these levels, IMO it should rather be regulated and have more grown fishes rather than just fishing down from the natural habitats, just as it's done with animal farms for thousands of years. If anyone hopes a huge deal on jobs from this industry I have to disappoint all of you. These are most likely to be one of the automated jobs, and the younger generations are not so keen to enter these markets either.

9. What is the hope for Welsh lamb industry?

   The biggest potential market for Welsh lamb is the EU as far as I know. If EU will have to pay import taxes on it as the same rules will apply as other nations, I can't see a reason why they would not rather be better off with some cheaper alternatives?

10. How will the lower paid jobs (ex. services or agriculture) will be filled up?

    As far as I know not many young British keen to be bus drivers, baristas, or work in agricultural jobs. Many of these could be automated in the future, and right now until the shift happens some are seasonal jobs (agriculture) others maintained at lower and lower wages (services) until it will be more worth for companies to automate these (see China's manufacturing). Once the automation kicks in to any industries not only those jobs not coming back, but that is not creating new ones (not at the scale those are lost). People from Europe will not come to apply for hundreds of pounds on an NI application, because simply they can't afford it in these sectors.

11. How will the higher paid jobs will be filled maintained and welcomed in the future?

    If there is going to be any kind of visa application or just the same NI cost counted in, most of the "white collar" workforce will think twice to come here, or rather stay inside another EU country. (Actually I already had to talk out quite a few fellow Hungarians in this sector from moving out from UK before the deal made. In this sector uncertainty a huge factor.)

12. What kind of border will Northern Ireland have?

    I know this is a debated topic for a long time too. What I can see is Britain is expecting Ireland to just leave their border open (so as from the EU). That is something rather easy to maintain the EU as all countries have pretty much the same standards, same regulations on products and services. If the UK leaves that is a pure fact it has to apply all the same regulations to be in the same free market. If not the same rules applied that is so called cherry-picking, which not only the EU but no other country will accept. If Ireland will have any border, it might lead back to the IRA attacks.

13. What kind of border will Gibraltar have?

    As far as I can find not many people concerned about this question. However I am, since close to 96% of people there voted to remain and I can completely understand it. That "rock" strongly depends on a friction less border with Spain, otherwise not many company will be able to operate there. (In that case the claim for that land from Spain will get more and more legitimate.)

14. How does the UK wish to maintain an open border with any EU countries?

    The regulations will have mainly two ways. One is to apply all the same ones the EU does, just as Norway do. The other is not to apply the same regulations (if it's more strict or looser that's not the question). In this second case it is very unlikely to have access to the single market which is just at the doorstep and one of the biggest ones in the world. Yes, others can be opened up, but maintaining the open border is everyone's interest in Europe.

15. How is the workers right maintained to be the same as in Europe or better?

    The many decades to fight for workers rights is not something to be ignored. If Britain will be a lot more "free" economy just like the US, how on earth will these rights be protected?

16. What is the guarantee for the £350m per week, and where will the UK get workforce for the healthcare?

    The famous campaign numbers were there, but this wouldn't be the first time for false/empty promises from politicians. The other half is even if the sector gets that money, where will the country get workforce? Nurses and doctors came from EU already leaving the country, and I can not see where they can be replaced from? Without meaning any offence just by offering easy migration for other countries may not solve the problem. Personally I can't see how those healthcare workers that are under qualified for EU countries would provide the same service as the ones that could practice so far. Or if they are qualified for those standards, why would they not go to an EU country and gain the benefit of being able to work in 27 other countries.

17. What are the plans for Universities?

    The majority of students studying here are not about to work here. Although these universities cost quite a lot. If the UK is outside of the EU that will mean different standards in the education too. In that case those students may not want to get into those expensive universities which degrees they might not be able to use in other countries.

18. What will happen to European Health Insurance Card for British people, or those who work here?

    This card is a huge deal too. I don't want to repeat myself with the expensive NI application. However this is I think a huge benefit to have instead of applying for some private insurance when moving to another country, or just going on holiday.

19. Even if the UK will have access to the single market, how will mobile providers, banks, aviation or any cross border businesses be regulated from rip off deals?

    The roaming tariffs were regulated not so long ago inside the EU, and bank are getting more and more on this regard too. If we look at any of these kind of regulations, these could be done only in a synchronised matter. If any of the sides make different laws it is very likely that the businesses will not be friction less and people will have to pay the cost.

20. Why does so many people call the EU council as bureaucrats, and consider them as a ruling power?

    The council is elected by the people across Europe, and the leaders accordingly through these representatives. So in this regards I can not think of any more democratic. Very much like the US senate, but without that much control over the states. They have no control over the countries, but can negotiate with a lot more power with 3rd party countries. The council can get the previously mentioned regulations and standards unified across the nations to make all the free move and trade as fluid as possible. They are not dictators, and the countries applies these set of rules on their own interest. UK has the huge luck of not been occupied by another ruling country, and that is something a lot easier to find in history books than to experience it.

21. How much final will be the deal UK will have by 29th March 2019?

    There was one case so far when a country left the EU. That was Greenland, and they had one deal to discuss: fishing. Those negotiations took 7 years. Yes, seven years. By triggering article 50, there is 2 years of technical leave, and another 2 year transition time. In this first two years the circumstances should be settled for the leaving country. Leaving of the UK in my view is a bit more complicated deal, and can not be fairly set up overnight as promised.

22. Even if the UK remains the gateway to Europe, how likely that investments will come here instead of going straight into the EU countries?

    The fortunate position can change rather swiftly. Britain has the huge benefit of being a gateway for investments between the EU and other countries. If it's not a member country that will potentially change this position. Of course the already settled companies will stay, at least for a while. Although new money is less and less likely to come for investment as in the current state the market is rather (over)filled for a single country, and the businesses will not have the same access to the EU as if they are set up let's say in Germany.

23. How is the UK planning on carbon emission regulations?

    The EU is setting up more and more strict regulations on carbon emissions every year. If the UK leaves how can it prevent the influence of the oil lobby? Even the US is overtaken already by it, although that is not a small country I think. Or should we rather prepare for more false promises about this case? Personally I don't want to live near coal plants, or cities where people die because of air pollution. (And I do not even touch the environmental impact.)

24. What are the plans if leaving the EU not give more jobs or any answers for the problems rather make everything worse?

    The very likely scenario is this country will be poorer outside of the single market both economically, both culturally. If the leave doesn't give answers for problems it might not be only me who can see a potential risk to have the same trends of forming a lot less democratic nation, just happened a few times in Europe before. Or would that be the point when the UK reapply for membership? (I am really concerned about the trends shaping in many other countries too. People tend to shift to the extremes, no matter that is right or left if recessions are on the table.) Personally I don't want to experience time travel, at least not to the past.

Conclusion

The time left is really close in political terms, and there is not only the future of the UK in stake. Please share, comment or reply to these question in any shape or form you prefer. I am not expecting any supporters, but wish to have some cleaner vision what kind of future does anyone can see or at the very least wish to have.