RE: Shrinking Horizons in Hard Science Fiction - Review of The Three Body Problem and Aurora
For some reason as I read your insightful observations, I thought of Larry Niven's Ringworld Engineers for its spin on human failure. My thought is that even "older/classic" SciFi depicted imperfections, but there is a there has been a shift in the mix of placing ones hopes in human ingenuity/spirit vs. some vague concept of the scientific method or technological possibilities. My theory is that as our scientific knowledge grows over the years and decades, the slow progress leaves less room for hand-waving that any problem will be easily/quickly solvable by technology. Yet this is curiously counterbalanced by the paradox of popular faith in socialized solutions. By this, I mean the sentiment from mass media that if we could only all cooperate by using less energy and taking less showers, then we can forestall global climate doom and gloom. Here's to a raft of good Sci Fi to take my mind off political posturing IRL.
Your comment about "hand waving" reminds me of something I read about the Star Trek writing team. The story was they would come up with the plot they wanted regardless of any scientific concerns. Then they'd insert a crisis with some system of the ship and write dialog like, "Captain, the tech isn't working. But I think we could try teching the tech..." And later on they'd pay an engineer or a physicist to put in some more convincing jargon.
You're right - the more science we really know, the harder it is to pull this off.