A Simple Probability Scenario [Blog Post]
Hi there. Here is a simple probability scenario that I have recently experienced this past weekend.
Page Link: https://pixabay.com/en/wheel-fortune-prize-wheel-prize-2121197/
After a workout, I was heading to my favourite Korean grocery store in Toronto. On the way, I notice this main road closed off for pedestrians and bikes only. There was this one tent setup with stationary cycling bikes and a spinning wheel. I decide to line up and take a spin of the wheel.
The tent setup was from a fitness cycling company who was trying to promote their fitness cycling services. Wheel spins were free and there was about 40 options on the wheel. (I did not count nor read the wheel options). From my wheel spin, I landed on a 5 class pass. The girl at the booth told me that if I fill out the ballot, submit it and get selected, I would receive a free 5 class pass to the fitness cycling place (Value $180 or something). It has been three days thus far, I don't think I got it as I have not been contacted.
Assume that there were 40 options on the wheel with one of them being the 5 class pass. Say about 30 people landed on the 5 class pass. The probability of me winning the 5 class pass depends on landing on the 5 class pass from the wheel and being chosen in the random draw. This probability is 1 out of 40 multiplied by 1 out of 30 which equals to 1 out of 1200. (The real probability would be different but still low.) Winning is hard...
a hahaha, this mathematician's way of thinking... well calculated😅