CRYPTO MARKET ON THIN ICE - FIRST TIME SINCE THE BULL RUN STARTED
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CRYPTO MARKET ON THIN ICE - FIRST TIME SINCE THE BULL RUN STARTED
Even after Bitcoin bounce from $50k and some alts recover quite nice we talking some like ANKR going +30% in the last 24hrs but its obvious its just a dead cat bounce and its not sustainable in the short term at least until the Bitcoin price decides where to go from here.
Bitcoin 4hr Chart
The 4hr Charts looks bullish, that cant be denied, a bullish divergence has been created but that is just a reaction to what just happen the last four days, when ever the market turns this bearish for a couple of days at some point the market bounce a point that today the daily candle almost retrace to the upside about 80% so there is still some bullish sentiment in the market, the candle that just close is very neutral but under a bearish pressure thats not good.
Bitcoin 1D Chart
Bitcoin did bounce from the 50EMA and that's awesome at least that happen as plan, had some bids on the $51k and $49k, second one didn't hit but I'm afraid that Bitcoin price is in really thin ice for the first time since this bull run started. Take in consideration that in the first dip on January Bitcoin came back with a 40% push to the upside braking new all time highs and after the February dump came up to only brake all time high for about 7% and retrace close to the previous two dips, this means the dip is not done because the other side of the coin is that this is the MOTHER OF ALL BEAR TRAP and I don't think that's the case.
Breaking $50k would be very hurtful for the market it would take down a lot of participants and I not talking about all time high buyers, many big players would think this is the top and could probably push down the price faster, yes this market is different than any other crypto bull run and may last longer or either could be shorter but more explosive, this is one of the reasons IMO this bull market may not last for the entire 2021.
Breaking $50k could put Bitcoin in the $45k to even $40k worst scenario, IMO I think that if this happens what we are looking right now is the top because then it wouldn't be a double top but 50% of a head and shoulder formation with a 50/50 chance of going further down and potentially break the neck line at $45k.
Right now what Bitcoin needs to stay bullish is come back from this $50k support with a perfect touch at the 50EMA and go up from here, lets say it wick down to $48k fishing for some liquidations and shakeout weak hands but to stay bullish IMO it cant go to the $45k department, previous dip were in the 25% to 30% drop but having this dip at those same levels would break certain points in the structure that I think would even create a death cross between the 20EMA and the 50EMA on the daily.
On the other hand
DXY 1D Chart
I'm no expert on any kind of markets not even in crypto btw, I'm just someone who has been participating and learning from my own experience, watching others who are way better traders than me and listening to everybody's opinion, right now I'm still not bearish on this market, I still think there is fuel on the tank and Bitcoin can hold the line as it did last year after the bloody weekend to then hold the line at $10k that was a critical level but never broke.
Right now take in consideration that correlations are not facts its just two markets repeating patterns within specific timeframes, the DXY and Bitcoin are starting to do the same thing IMO as it happen on 2018, correlation doesn't always have to always play out this is why I still think that there is still a leg up and that's why I think it has to go up from here $50k because if it doesn't and goes down to $45k it puts in danger or at least would be less chances of Bitcoin to go up to a new all time high, in my understanding DXY going up means the dollar becomes stronger there for investors tend to get out of risky assets for example crypto.
The DXY started to go up on January to then peak on February to then go down another bit on March and right now its trying to break out, it just partially broke the 200EMA on the 1D and confirmation of a brake out would be stay over $94, with a good part of the global population going out and try to spin the economy gears once again I think the dollar would become stronger than what it is right now pushing the price of the DXY up and usually since 2013 that I look back on the charts that means "Bye bye hermano" cya crypto bull run and lest wait for the next halving, again this doesn't have to happen the same every time, I can see many on crypto are waiting for a HUGE GREEN CANDLE to call the top as it happen on 2017 but look back for the past months, all this big ass green candles.
Bitcoin 1M Chart
This is just my opinion on the current crypto market situation, wanted to document it for future reference and share my potentially wrong opinion and if thats the case I can go back in time and learn from my mistakes, hope you are on the right side of the market and keep making profits.
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