The NCAA Tournament Bracket Manifesto

Selection Sunday has come and gone and now we have a few days before the greatest four-day stretch of college sports arrives on our doorstep. No other sport or league has the type of drama, surprise, and overall craziness that the March Madness brings to the table. With that being said, there are always ways to find a leg up on your competition and that is what we will cover today. Whether this is your first time filling out a bracket or your 50th, there are some ground rules that you'll want to know to help you crush your competition. Here we go.

RULE #1: Pick the 1-Seeds Over the 16 Every Time

This is where every single person filling out a bracket should start. The number one seeds are 132-0 all-time in the tournament, so don't overthink things here and just take Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, and Kansas in their first round matchups. There have been a few close calls, but no number one seed has ever fallen in their first game in the tourney.

With all of that being said, this year might have the matchup most poised to buck the trend. Kansas goes up against Penn who just won their first Ivy League championship in 11 years. Here's why a historic upset could happen this year: Kansas has shown an innate ability to lose to inferior teams (losses to Arizona State, Washington, Baylor, and twice to Oklahoma State) due in large part to being so reliant on the three-point shot. If Kansas isn't hitting from long range, their offense looks anemic and they don't have the size we have grown accustomed to seeing from Bill Self's Jayhawks. Penn on the other hand is a streaky scoring team. They've had eight players score 20 or more points in a game this season and shoot a ton of threes. If there were a formula that we could concoct that would give a 16-seed the best chance of pulling an upset, it would look eerily similar to this Kansas-Penn matchup.

Despite all this, Kansas will win this game. Don't fall into a trap. Pick the 1-seeds to advance through the round of 64.

RULE #2: Go With Your Gut

This one is simple. It has less to do with actual basketball knowledge and more to do with simple human psychology. You're going to think about picking that 15 over 2 upset because nobody else is going to get it and it will make you look like a genius when it happens, but more often than not, the upset doesn't happen and you're kicking yourself as that 2-seed rolls through multiple rounds as you're left staring at big red X's on your sacred bracket. Don't overthink things. Go with your gut. If you really believe that the 13-seed has a great matchup against that 4-seed, then go for it. Sure, they might not pull it off, but at least you'll know you stuck with your guns. Calling the upset and then reversing course because some "expert" told you that the 13-seed never had a chance will always feel worse than just going for it and being wrong.

RULE #3: Don't Beat Yourself Up

March Madness is known for being nearly impossible to predict. In fact, nobody has EVER picked a perfect bracket, so don't beat yourself up when you missed an upset. Chances are, a vast majority of the people you're competing against did as well. Brackets are about having fun, just keep that in the forefront of your mind when you miss a pick.

RULE #4: Don't Force a Cinderella

Depending on how your bracket rules work, this rule may or may not apply to you. If your bracket is like most, then the later games in the tournament are worth more points and thus picking a Cinderella team to make a deep run could easily tank your bracket if that team loses early. By all means, go for the upsets, but just know that missing out on an opportunity in final four is far worse than missing a pick in the round of 32.

Many will point to the 2014 championship game where a 7-seed UCONN took on 8-seed Kentucky. This was an anomaly. Both teams were criminally under-seeded. UCONN was coming off a fantastic run and played a relatively soft group of teams to make it to the final four. Kentucky on the other hand, eeked their way into the championship game, winning their prior five games by a combined 18 points.

1-Seeds have about a 36% chance of cutting the nets according to fivethirtyeight.com. No team seeded higher than 6-seed Houston has a greater than 1% chance of winning the title according to the site. No team seeded higher than 11 has ever made the final four, and no team higher than 8 has ever won the championship. Just keep those numbers in mind.

RULE #5: Beware of the "Kemba"

Most college basketball fans know what this means, but for the few of you that don't, let me enlighten you.

In 2011, UCONN had had a down season. They finished 9th in the Big East and weren't expected to make much noise, but guard Kemba Walker put the team on his back. UCONN won five straight games in the Big East tournament to capture an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. Kemba continued his brilliant play in the tournament, eventually winning the championship against an over matched Butler squad. Kemba's performance went down as one of the greatest conference and NCAA tournament runs in history.

So what I mean by "beware of the Kemba" is that there is always the possibility that a player single-handily takes over a game or tournament and carries his team to unlikely victories. We've seen it from players like Christian Laettner for Duke in '92, Steph Curry for Davidson in '08, and Shabazz Napier for UCONN in 2014, so be on the lookout for potential "Kemba" performances.

The most likely candidates for this year? Collin Sexton for Alabama, Trae Young for Oklahoma, Justin Robinson for Virginia Tech. Unfortunately, Alabama and Virginia Tech play against each other in the first round.

RULE #6: Beware of the "Sexy Upset Pick" Team

Every year, the tournament viewing public seems to latch onto a team before the tournament starts and that team becomes the darling. That team is given added pressure of becoming the "favorite" upset across the nation, and often we see that team fold in the first round. Always be aware of this and plan your picks accordingly. This isn't to say don't pick any upsets, but be smart about them and look out when literally everybody picks a certain upset. Go against the grain and you could be rewarded with an opportunity few have.

This year's "sexy upset pick" favorites: Loyola-Chicago (I actually think they're legit), New Mexico State, Oklahoma (Trae Young hype is strong).

RULE #7: Beware of the Early Season Fall-offs

Teams that crushed it early in the season but fell off tremendously are always ones to be leery of. Winning an NCAA tournament is about peaking at the end of the season, so put more weight on the last 10 games of the season than you do the first 10. Some teams are seeded highly because of what they did earlier in the season (I'm looking at you Ohio State and Purdue), while other teams on incredible hot streaks are poised to make deep runs (Loyola-Chicago, Gonzaga, and Arizona are prime examples here). When in doubt, opt for recent success as opposed to early season success with a late season drop-off.

CAVEAT: Don't over-emphasize an early conference tournament loss. Conference tournaments can be extremely unpredictable as well so an early loss by a team that was otherwise hot may not mean their season is doomed. Matchups matter and sometimes a lower-seeded conference team can ruin a team's run. Just look at Ohio State.

RULE #8: Just Have Fun

The final and most important rule of the NCAA tournament is to just have a good time. This is quite literally where the magic happens so don't worry about nailing every pick and not enjoying the great basketball that is happening. So what if you missed a few upsets here and there. Don't let that bring you down. Cheer for that 16-seed to beat the 1-seed, even if it does completely screw up your bracket. Enjoy what's at hand and don't worry about what goes wrong. You have a 1 in 9.2 quintillion shot of getting a perfect bracket so who really cares if you miss a couple picks.

When in doubt, remember why you filled out a bracket in the first place. To win pride (and/or money). Don't let a few wrong calls ruin the fact that there's phenomenal college basketball happening on the daily!

---

Well there you have it folks, the first official NCAA Bracket Manifesto. There are thousands of things that it's missing and there will be countless revisions in the years to come, but this should give you at least a leg up on your competition. My final words of advice, remember that it's not about beating everyone in the world, it's just about being those who can hear your shit talking.

Bracket On!

-brandonp