“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future” — Niels Bohr

At the moment, statistics or numerical models are mostly used to predict the future. Despite the fact that we could manually predict the future events, the manual prediction skills have been exceeded by numerical modelling in many aspects.

But the certainty in these types of forecasts drops off significantly. This is because many events are based on an infinitely complex and constantly changing system, with a little bit of chaos thrown in for fun.

With limited observational data, experts have to determine which model output may be the most accurate, which to discard, which to rely on, and often take an aggregate or average of many possible outputs and call that the most likely scenario. In a global numerical model, more data is needed.

It is far enough into the future and more like a guessing game.

It leads to the uncertainty in the parameterization of certain important physical events. In numerical model, experts use dozens of parameterizations to describe the small-scale events or other complex phenomena. But the truths is it relies on experience. The accuracy improves as time approaches the point we are trying to forecast, because we gain a more complete picture of what is unfolding.

Building off the point that our imagining of future was based on the past, has led us to imagine bigger or better examples of what we already had, but made it particularly difficult to imagine true innovation.

Stox.com believes that prediction markets are extremely useful for estimating the market’s expectation of certain events. Prediction markets have value because they are a great vehicle for aggregating information. Unlike traditional polls or political pundits, they also allow a gauge of conviction; those who are truly confident of a given outcome will stake more money on it.

STOX Blockchain Prediction Market is an open source, Bancor-based prediction markets platform that uses crowd wisdom and a decentralized system to allow users to make trades based on the outcome of events.

Using the wisdom of the crowd, every day people will be able to predict and trade the outcome of events in almost any imaginable category: Finance, sports, politics and even the weather. Stox is designed to accommodate and be intuitive for mainstream audiences. Powering Stox will be the STX digital token, the primary form for fees, collaterals, and the currency for investment in event outcomes. Stox incentivizes other industry leaders with existing customer bases, to join the Stox network and drive traffic to the network.

By developing decentralized and scalable prediction platform, Stox are extremely useful for estimating the market’s expectation of certain events.

Prediction markets might have their limitation, but Stox.com will always improve their platform designs to elicit expected means or probabilities with more complex markets, variances and correlations.