RE: A discussion on the innovation of governance with the father of futarchy Robin Hanson
Thanks for sharing, I'm all for looking at how we can improve our governance model, and I'd never heard of futarchy.
I had to re-read Robin's answer to your question about prediction markets in this US Presidential election a few times and I'm still not sure I understand the implication.
RH: One election contains only a small amount of data compared to the data sets we’ve had to judge prediction market accuracy. You have to judge based on the biggest data sets you can find, instead of cherry picking examples.
Was the failure of prediction markets in this instance a fluke? Do we need a degree of big data far larger than what's available to us now to rely on prediction markets? Was the data supporting this particular election far smaller than we usually have for other predictions?
I know you're not him, so I don't expect you to have an answer, just figured I'd ask. :)
I believe Robin's just suggesting that to make a judgement about the effectiveness of prediction markets, you must look at a wide data set. Prediction markets clearly failed in the election, but you can't make the judgement that they're bad just based on this tiny dataset.