Summary

Specializing in online trading and investment, Saxo Bank published a quarterly forecast for global markets, including the encrypted currency issue, which, in his view, could be on the threshold of a new cycle. This is written by CoinJournal.

In the quarterly Q2 2018 document released today, Saxo Bank focuses on issues such as the upcoming completion of the largest monetary experiment ever undertaken in the field of monetary policy, growing nationalism, increasingly prominent social and economic disparities, and a growing lack of hope among the younger generations.

In addition, Bitcoin and other cryptographic currencies became one of the areas that Saxo Bank analysts paid special attention to.

In particular, the document raises the question that cryptocurrencies can enter a new cycle of their development. Then, after an unprecedented increase to record highs at the end of 2017, when the price of bitcoin reached $ 20,000, in the first three months of 2018, digital currencies fell significantly in value.

"After having lost more than 50% in value, Bitcoin showed the worst by itself the first quarter and the second worst quarter in its history," says the report.

According to Jacob Pauncey, an analyst at Saxo Bank, the situation remains fragile due to increasing pressure from regulators and the ban on advertising on the largest social networks. However, "the possibility of renewing growth" can not be ruled out, "he added.

Jacob Pouncey believes that in the short term there may be more casualties due to the same regulation and the continued sale of large batches of bitcoins by the trustees of the bankrupt Mt Gox stock exchange.

At the same time, he points out that the previous strong declines consolidated the market, and the sector itself witnessed how large organizations bought crypto exchange exchanges. Among these acquisitions called the purchase of Coincheck Japanese online broker Monex Group, the refund of 40% of the shares of the Tokyo BitARG, which recently held a Yahoo Japan, and is passed under the management of the company's popular Circle Change Poloniex.

The analyst points out that several events could become a springboard for bullish sentiment in the market in the second quarter.

"If there is a significant downturn in the stock markets, there will be an inflow of money into uncorrelated assets or assets that are outside the traditional financial system, and cryptocurrencies become a potential alternative." The influx of institutional capital in the cryptocurrency market due to greater regulation and better protection of investors can lead to a positive second quarter, "said Jacob Pauncey.

Observed in the last two years, the cryptocurrency growth took place in a context of geopolitical instability in general in the world where the key events were the election of Donald Trump for the president of the United States, a referendum to leave the United Kingdom of the European Union (Brexit) and the nuclear test of North Korea.

And according to Jacob Pouncey, the current negative cycle will also come to an end sooner or later. Weak investors will leave the market, and those who remain will be waiting for positive news.

Recall that, in December 2017, Saxo Bank published a traditional annual list of provocative and impactful forecasts. In particular, the Danish bank analysts said that in 2018 the global shock wave economy, whose number may go into the weakening of independence and control of the United States and Japanese central banks, the collapse of the S & S stock index P 500, the political tension in the European Union and the loss of interest of investors in Bitcoin.