3 Things That Blockchain Will Disrupt, Just Like Web Did, 20 Years Ago
From many angles, this blockchain thing is very similar to the web thing that happened 20 years ago. Only this time it doesn't happen to information, it happens with money.
The web disrupted information in ways that nobody could imagine, 20 years ago. I think we're in the middle of the same phenomenon, but this time we're talking about money.
Here are 3 things that I see happening, as a consequence of the blockchain technology adoption, with a certainty above 90%.
1. Not One Monthly Magazine, But Many Blogs - Not One SingleBank Account, But Many Wallets
I know it's hard to imagine now that you would wait one month to read some news. Or some breath-taking stories, spiced with beautiful photos printed on glossy paper. And yet, those who were waiting for "Paris Match" or "Newsweek" are surely remembering this.
Right now we have this instantly. And I mean it. It's just so present in our lives that it became the new norm. We can just google something or access some browser bookmarks and voila: we have every content that we need right here, right now. And the information we're taking in these days, well, it doesn't come just from one big paper, being it "New York Times" or "Wall Street Journal" (although we may still use them, based on their lingering reputation) but from dozens, if not hundreds of blogs.
I expect to see this replicated with the bank accounts. We have right now a few bank accounts, many of us, under 10, because above this limit the maintenance cost will be too high. But soon we will have dozens, if not hundreds of wallets, all holding a few tokens, and all contributing in a bigger or smaller part to our daily life. Just like blogs.
2. Blogs Will Rise And Fall - So Will Tokens
Web lowered the entry barrier to anyone who wants to make a living off of their shared content, but that doesn't mean everybody will succeed at it. On the contrary. Very few are reaching to top of the charts, where real money is made. Very few have millions of subscribers to their newsletters, or dozens of millions of subscribers to their YouTube channels. And we find this quite normal.
I expect to see the same thing happening with tokens. Out of the dozens, or hundreds, or thousands of wallets which we'll carry with us (more likely in a hardware wallet smaller than your pinky nail) not all will perform like champions. Some of them will rise, some of them will fall. But the good news is that we'll always have some newcomers to pick from, just like we see new, interesting blogs or editorial projects all the time.
So some tokens - in my opinion, the vast majority of them - will go to the "token graveyard", the place that nobody uses or visit. And we will probably discover them 10 or 20 years after, this time with the "vintage" word in front of them, like historical curiosities. Or, who knows, even antiques.
3. There Will Be A Google Of Tokens
Google brought order into the chaos of web. I don't know how many of you operated the WWW before Google, but if you did, you certainly remember names like AltaVista or Lycos. They were basically portals, in which everybody could add their links and "game" the system for a better position, in a rather trivial way.
When Google appeared, the web came to life. The way it classified data and made it available almost instantly boosted an entire industry: the content industry. Of course, this created a new layer, a sort of a "middle-man", on which Google monetized heavily. AdSense and the whole "content discovery" industry, powered by their notorious ranking algorithm, are still Google's main revenue sources.
The token industry looks pretty much like the AltaVista of the early web. We just know some names and claims, and that's it. Hardly anyone can guess if a token will actually hold some value 3 months from now. I expect to see a Google of the tokens coming up pretty soon. Some sort of a search-engine, in which AI will play a consistent role, taking into account thousands of tokens parameters, from inflation to team, and "rank" them, just like Google does with web pages.
So, what do you think? What percentage of "likely to happen" will give to any one of these 3? Do you have other predictions?
Would love to read them in the comments.
image source: Pixabay
I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.
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I would add one more thing to the list:
STREAMING MONEY
Just as we have today streaming music, streaming video. And it does not take (to me) to much of the imagination efforts to imagine this
Since I began on the Steemit platform it is very hard for me to enter into FB where I've been hanging out for nearly 10 years. I am quickly moving out of that network but have several research groups I work with and messages to pick up now and then so bounce in at least twice a day.
What I noticed just yesterday is that a "swell is forming". My wall is showing some posts from people I'd not expect with interest in the cryptocurrencies. That is exciting. The word is moving out there and people are beginning to ask if there isn't a better way than what we've become accustomed to in the way of currency and decentralization.
I saw a post by one guy asking "what sort of cryptocurrency do you like the most"... His comment feed was filling up fast with different types from Bitcoin to many I've never heard of. Unfortunately I was the only one that replied with STEEM but at least people are questioning. That is a sign :)
Yes, I can relate. Since I joined Steemit, a year ago, my Facebook activity dropped to almost zero.
All very good points. I already have more wallets than bank accounts.
I was a just casual user on facebook. Recently it seems like I have to go through more ads and such before getting to posts from friends. My time on facebook had been dropping off anyway. I discovered Steem and I'm on it a lot. It is a different and more pleasant experience which has gotten better after the recent upgrades to the platform.
Yes, blockchain is such a nascent industry and there is are a lot of
players. Only a handful will survive and thrive. Even the ones that will make it will be exposed to constant criticism and out and out ridicule that always besets pioneers.
Yes, the future in the blockchain will be very interesting and we are just in the beginning.
Good luck to all on this journey.
Amen to that!
you are right, the probability is 99% of all 3 to happen , actually they are all but 1 thing, I said it before that only 5% of the tokens will survive
Many things will rise and fall and the things you mentioned definitely going to have tough time round
My opinion:
Definitely is already happening (100%). An analogy of having multiple wallets today could be when in early 2000s we opened several email accounts (yahoo, aol, hotmail) depending of what we needed in a certain moment (news, IM, groups, etc.).
As true as it happens every day in different aspects of human relations (100%). I like to link that with the study of SNA (Social Network Analysis).
Not sure about one Google (65%): maybe not only one Google, but two or three big incumbents. The question here for me is: what will happen first: this Google(s) will cause tokens become mainstream or when tokens become mainstream will appear this Google(s)?
I will keep thinking about this :)
Interesting.... I see where you are going with this - one token to rule them all.
I can see that happening. In 10 years i think most of the alt coins will be gone, or only used by 'enthusiasts'.
There will be one or two major cryptos that everyone uses - and they will be backed by the big banks.
The vast majority of the world are not into blockchain technology, or anarchy, or 'freeing themselves from slavery'. they just want to be able to earn money and buy stuff.
The coin that makes it easy for them to do that, on the web and around the world in real life, is the one that will get mass adoption.
As you pointed out Google made it easy. The average person does not care about the code behind Goggle, how it works, how it transforms their experience. They just want the content they are looking for and they want to expend the least amount of effort to get it.
Money is the same. If you can get your coins easily, manage them easily, spend them easily, that's the road you'll take.
The trick, and your mission, should you accept it @dragosroua, is to find out what that coin is going to be, and let all of us know so we can get in on the ground floor and make huge amounts of money when it rises ;-)
When will I at least get a little rich ... at least a little ...?
Hodl
this is the time where you can get rich faster...so if you can make a profit , hold some for the future and blog about it on steemit...
I'm hoping for one wallet that maybe contains many wallets. I have a feeling if I keep too many wallets I'll loose my mind.
Tokens will rise and fall and was just watching a youtube video that's predicting the crypto bubble to happen much like the .com bubble and only the few strong coins will rise from the ashes.
I think we're in the altavista stage of the crypto google. ARK could potentially become the google we're looking for, but only time will tell.
I don't think there will ever be a time when the average person would have that many wallets. While there is truly an extremely wide variety of blogs out there, I doubt many people keep up with too many of those. Most people would regularly follow a few and most of the time, it's because they keep popping in to their social media feeds and get shared by friends. I would be extremely surprised if the average person followed more than 3 blogs if not fewer. People are lazy, they want things easy and simple so I think this is even less likely with wallets. Tokens and cryptotrading require effort and competence and most people have a shortage of both. The people investing and trading will increase, but most people simply can't deal with the complexity and the huge variety in choice. They want a life when they can choose between Cola and Pepsi and too many options get overwhelming. So I don't think having tens of wallets will ever be a mainstream thing. The regular joe will get into a few popular, stable and convenient crypto tops and that's all.
I think you've got 2. spot on. As the space gets more and more competitive, there will be some consolidation and the entry barrier will get harder and harder for newcomers. Still, there will always be newcomers but there will always be churn. I think most shitcoins will not really go away, they will just dwindle in value and usage as there will always be somebody hoping that if they hold them for long enough, they will increase in value.
I certainly remember the times of Alta Vista and how search used to be kind of competitive (while still being pretty bad). While Google managed to revolutionize it, I don't think a proper monopolizing google for tokens has a real chance of emerging. Predicting the market is just too hard, and if you somehow crack it technologically, you are more likely to keep it to yourself and line your pockets with cash trading. And if that info was public, it will quickly start diminishing in value as everybody would have the same "insider" info. Additionally, if a platform like that becomes too prominent, it's ranking will become a major factor in predicting what tokens will do well, so the AI would have to take itself into account to really keep predicting leading to a really complicated model with a lot of regressions. On top of this, it would be very likely to start creating bubbles and when those start bursting, people will loose trust in it. It really seems impossible to me that an algorithm would ever be able to properly predict the market as the market is made up of humans and humans are inherently unpredictable and often irrational.