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RE: Burned tokens, rewards, and inflation summary September 17, 2022 - Total burn estimates: 96,709K STEEM/SP and 60 SBD
Projecting forward it is looking like the Monthly Burned Rewards will be around 17,300 SP for September. If this comes out so it will be the highest monthly total so far since the current burning campaign began.
That would be pushing towards a 200K SP annual total.
I wonder where this comes on the price impact scale?
I would wish for it, but so far I unfortunately don't have the impression that it has any noticeable effect at all.
From the 2nd graph above, the total new rewards per day are about 58K (down from about 60 or 62K when I started this tracking - I presume due to declining inflation). At the same time, we're burning about 1K per day, 1.7% - and that doesn't even count rewards that go to witnesses or SPS.
From June through September, we've burned nearly 100K, so if you extrapolate that for a year, 300K per year is even plausible. But, with current_supply at 400 million, that's still less than 1/10% of the supply.
To be fair, though, STEEM has advanced by 10 or 20% against BTC and most of the comparison tokens that I'm tracking. Also, I haven't seen any real evidence that power-up behavior drives the price. It feels like the opposite and prices drive powerup/powerdown.
So all that is to say that I agree that the effect so far is limited. Looking at the big picture, what we're burning is still pretty small. In the end, I think he key is still the same as it was when we started talking about this. Burning tokens has to be an audience-building lever before it can become a price lever. I still think we can accomplish this, but it's not an overnight thing. There's a long way to go.
@cc: @pennsif
Yes, the burning is likely more of a community signal, than an actual price mover.
Buy demand will always be the only true market mover. Hungry-Griffin is pushing on that lever today.
I guess there is a big pile of STEEM on the exchanges to be soaked up before the price starts to move up appreciably. Although there was a bit of a price spike a few hours ago.
Right, I always forget about that. STEEM is still comparatively well placed.
Yes, compared to the current_supply, the amounts are really small, so the effect can only be seen in the long term. We will observe it...