When the Levee Breaks...steemCreated with Sketch.

in bitshares •  17 days ago

2018 is shaping up to be a Perfect Storm for the Bitcoin industry. It will be the "best of times and the worst of times." The industry is going mainstream while the Powers That Be are plotting some kind of Global Reset to demolish the dollar and bring in a One World Currency to seize Absolute Power over humanity. The sheepdogs sense something is up and are pouring into digital currencies -- driven either by Fear of the Beast (FOTB) or Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). Their sheep? Well, not so much.

The resulting misallocation of wealth is staggering.

If it keeps on rainin' levee's goin' to break
If it keeps on rainin' levee's goin' to break
When the levee breaks I'll have no place to stay.

When the levee breaks, we will see "the greatest transfer of wealth in human history." I can't figure out who said that first. Just about every crypto/metals pundit has said it at least once since 2008. I think I first heard it from Chris Duane in his classic Silver Bullet and Silver Shield video.

Or was it Mike Maloney? Peter Schiff? Gerald Celente? Doug Casey? The Dollar Vigilante? ... the mind reels.

Whoever said it first was certainly talking about a movement of wealth from the fiat bankster system into precious metals. Lately, I've heard it used with equal enthusiasm about the Bitcoin Industry. Cryptocurrencies are hot and smart money is beginning to move into it. How smart is rather debatable.

Most of the "smart" money is moving because (a) they see the exponential run-up in prices, or (b) because they did their "due diligence" reading sponsored articles by people who interviewed one of their own media clients as a "subject matter expert" because they became rich and famous on Bitcoin or Ethereum and are now investing in projects based on Bitcoin or Ethereum. All unbiased critical thinkers with no agenda, of course.

They have no idea what will happen next.

Cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good,
Now, cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good,
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move.

"What is actually about to happen is a massive correction
to the greatest misallocation of wealth
since the Great Tulip Mania of 1637."
Stan Larimer

Take a look at what most of the "smart money" is buying. Notice any misallocation of wealth?

Yep. That's right. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the biggest simply because they are the biggest not because they are the most used. And it's only going to get worse because Bitcoin and Ethereum can't be more used. They are already saturated many times a day and forced to ration their use by raising their prices.

Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan
Lord mean old levee taught me to weep and moan
Got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his home

Meanwhile, the real-time blockchains using Dan Larimer's DPOS technology are quietly taking over - without even moving their own sweat-o-meters off zero.

Steemit and BitShares routinely top the charts at blocktivity.info. Both have huge excess capacity to grow, and companies with high bandwidth applications are beginning to notice. In the past few months the following companies have announced that they are moving to BitShares simply because it is the only platform that can handle their transaction volume.

  • Bankcoin
  • Eristica
  • Micromoney
  • Bitspark
  • Augmate
  • Stokens
  • CVCoin

I know of a few more applications with huge existing user bases that are about to announce before Christmas as well. These are just the first fruits of a global awakening to the fact that performance, not good-old-boy networking, is what ultimately matters when you can no longer bluff your way forward with awesome contacts and great marketing. There are hundreds of new applications currently being built on the slow, overloaded mining-congested networks of yesteryear. Each is about to inconveniently discover that they can't service their customers after spending a year in development and promotion barking up the wrong tree. Then the above trickle of defectors will become a torrent as the Bitcoin Levee breaks, releasing all that misallocated wealth back into the system in pursuit of something safe to own.

All that business will be backed up and held hostage in a log jam behind the Bitcoin Levee. The reservoir where over $200 billion in digital currency wealth has been accumulating is about to discover that it is a stagnating dead pool with no place to grow.

"When the Levee breaks, got no place to go..."

But wait! There's more! At the same time enterprise level train wrecks are littering the landscape, the regulators of the world are going to be shutting down half of the big-money ICO's, locking up their purveyors and sending shockwaves through the market. The resulting stampede for the exits is not exactly going to calm the industry down.

All last night sat on the levee and moaned,
All last night sat on the levee and moaned,
Thinkin' 'bout my baby and my happy home.

So there will be a Flight to Safety all right. Businesses moving to proven real-time blockchains designed to handle their traffic and speculators seeking out high-quality tokens backed by licensed securities, trusted commodities, and utility tokens that offer real value.

Look on the bright side. It's very nice to have all those resources stored up for us behind the Bitcoin Levee. The opportunities for those who offer true quality and performance will be enormous!

What's in YOUR wallet?

Forget coinmarketcap.com! Visit blocktivity.info for live performance based Metrics that Matter.)

See Also

The Great Bitcoin Train Wreck of 2018


DISCLAIMER: Author is NOT a United States Securities Dealer or Broker or U.S. Investment Adviser. Sender is a consultant and makes no warranties or representations as to the buyer, seller or transaction. All due diligence is the responsibility of the reader. This post and the referenced related documents are never to be considered a solicitation for any purpose in any form or content. Upon viewing of this document, the Recipient hereby acknowledges this disclaimer. These documents are not from any banking or other Institution. We do not provide securities or securities-related advice. No information herein shall be construed as a solicitation of investment funds or a securities offering in any way.


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Another powerful article, but this one is extra juicy for us all to learn from and share widely a knowledge that should be spreading like wild fires in a mid-summer day!

Great work @stan! Thanks a lot for sharing and,as the knowledge of the real powers behind every currencies rise, la crème de la crème will be on top, and, by the looks of what you have shared with us again, the cream as started to settle on top already. ;) I hope you like my French!?!

All for one and one for all! Namaste :)

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Powerful without a doubt. I'll be resteeming and tweeting this. Simply inspiring.

My favorite quote, if I had to choose, would be:

At the same time enterprise level train wrecks are littering the landscape, the regulators of the world are going to be shutting down half of the big-money ICO's, locking up their purveyors and sending shockwaves through the market. The resulting stampede for the exits is not exactly going to calm the industry down.

Love that clear description of reality. There's going to be a clear rush into real crypto that truly delivers - things like STEEM and BTS. No doubt in my mind, and even more so after having read this.

Also liked the teaser.

I know of a few more applications with huge existing user bases that are about to announce before Christmas as well.

When the levee breaks, and when everyone's on the same side of the trade, and the trade is parabolic?

WSJ-BTC-front-page.jpg

Things could get crazy.

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@cryptographic I totally agree with what @stan posted and what you are discussing here with @eric-boucher . You have been talking about Bitshares a lot in your blog, and also about steem, and their technologies that they delivery, and your pricing analysis of how they should value because of their power was simply of great quality. Upvoted your comment. @gold84

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GREAT COMMENT @cryptographic! thanks a lot for sharing your thoughts and ideas, including the newspaper article.

Namaste :)

Bankcoin
Eristica
Micromoney
Bitspark
Augmate
Stokens

add to them CVCoin https://ico.crypviser.net/

"Crypviser is a disruptive, encrypted all-in-one network for social and business communication based on blockchain technology."

The MOST awesome part of this post is not that Bitshares or Steem are the most efficient and scalable blochchains on the entire internet BUT that your SON DAN is the spearhead for BOTH OF THEM!

BAM!

You're best article ever? Me thinks so!

Well explained and illustrated!

You seem prophetic. I saw that coming :-)

One of your best yet Stan. Man I am getting goose bumps just considering the idea and how in my own small way of the forefront of this transfer. :)

Damn, I've got to go and buy some Bitshares!

bitUSD will replace every USDT in every exchange.

https://steemit.com/bitshares/@docmastery/usdt-isn-t-backed-with-anything

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Great point. +10

Great Post. i liked

It's really crazy this activity chart. Had no clue

We'll give them no quarter!

Feck! You beat me to the opportunity to post a led zep classic l, Stan!

@stan this is simply a great analysis on the flows of funds, fiat into crypto (bitcoin + eth), and then after regulations and all calamity, the bitcoin and eth crypto will flow into systems that are really delivering like steem and bts, and eos, that is coming with great power too.

I believe the steem blockchain has lots of surprises to see, and that what is going on with @utopian-io that is changing the way open source projects are funded, and the way developers will contribute. This amazing technology Dpos of steem, will change the world. As @elear mentioned in a recent video (Steve Jobs quote) for @utopian-io , if we think we are crazy enough to change the world, we will actually do so, this is exactly what is going on with the mass of creative people on the steem blockchain. Upvoted this great post.

Regards,
@gold84

Congratulations @stan, this post is the seventh most rewarded post (based on pending payouts) in the last 12 hours written by a Hero account holder (accounts that hold between 10 and 100 Mega Vests). The total number of posts by Hero account holders during this period was 233 and the total pending payments to posts in this category was $3222.53. To see the full list of highest paid posts across all accounts categories, click here.

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Looks like they are focused on the right issues. Getting rid of mining is always a sign of a liberated thinker.

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I think it's a very interesting concept, but can't see how something like Bitshares could be built on it, as immediate global consensus is necessary for an exchange. I don't think everyone knows everything immediately on hashgraph. I could be wrong.

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Looks like they are trying to patent the concept. Bad idea. They may end up dead or worse if it has the potential they claim it does.

very great presentation and lot of good information, your post could be my best reference. Thanks @Stan. Good luck.

Thanks for sharing, I really think Steem/SBD are massively undervalued as a transactional currency. I must say I find the way the Openledger platform a bit confusing for me. I’ve had an account for a while and don’t get the assets there open.waterever. Where are my coins stored? Am I missing something Huge here?

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Openledger is a gateway on top of bitshares. This means that openledger must put up 2-3(?) times collateral to offer the open.whatever asset, same applies to bitUSD. This is in contrast to USDtether which has no guarantee of being backed by any asset. If everyone were to rush on the USDtether, its price would collapse and everyone would lose their money. If you have open.BTC or bitUSD on bitshares/openledger and the price starts to fall out of fear and a rush to sell, it would have to fall 2-3 in order to deplete openledger's BTC reserves (held in equivalent BTS)/bitshares reserve of BTS. This is the age old debate between fractional reserve banking and austrian economic theory. With fractional reserves you deposit $10 into a bank and the bank lends out $100, but the bank only actually has $10. If everyone rushed to pull out the $100, the bank would collapse and everyone would lose their money. With bitshares you are guaranteed a sort of safety net in the event that shit gets temporarily out of control. Your open.bitcoins are stored in your bitshares/openledger wallet. In the event you want to withdraw from the trading platform to an actual bitcoin wallet, openledger must match your open.BTC to BTC 1:1. Does any of this make any sense?

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It does. Thanks.
I guess when we deposit our funds on a traditional exchange we take it for granted that they don’t just sell it to someone else then hope they can replace those coins we we demand their withdrawal.

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I was a bit wrong. With open.btc and other open.*assets from Openledger, they are simply IOU's from OL the company. So, they say that have 1:1 bitcion for each open.btc, but that's on them to live up to. The bitUSD, bitGOLD, bitCNY, and other bitAssets are part of bitshares and must have at minimum 2X the value of that asset in bitshares locked in a smart contract. Sorry for the confusion with openledger.

The thing is, there's not really that much activity from BTC and/or BTS aside from buying and selling, wherein with Steemit, it's the social media platform of the cryptoworld, if we have Facebook, Twitter and/or Tumblr on the mainstream side, then we got Steemit on the blockchain side. And sooner or later, the blockchain will be there again and Steemit will be eating the mainstream platforms and they will never see it coming.

You're losing me a little bit @stan. I'm an software dev from a different field relatively new to decentralized IT. I'm well aware of the scaling issues in bitcoin, but when you say "when the bitcoin levee breaks it's got nowhere to go", I would presumably assume that the place that it goes is into alt's and other traditional safe havens. In fact, I predicted that this was going to be the most likely scenario for the failure of bitcoin to scale a couple of months ago. But wouldn't lightning network, schnorr signatures make a difference? Of course if they wait too long, something will take it's place that can scale.

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The crisis is upon them. 2017 was the year enterprises started building on the blockchain. 2018 is the year they find out the leaders can't deliver on their promises.

The one wild card - the leaders have a lot of money.
Our trump card, they've ignored the obvious solution for three years already.

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Wild card #2: The leaders have a lot of dumb, Wall Street money following them....

These are the same people who bid Yahoo to $500 a share and dogs.com to wherever it ended up.

BTC and ETH will continue to receive a ton of money from the Street which should push their values to obscene levels....before it all pops.

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I'm already heavily into Steem. Downloaded a bitshares wallet but haven't used it yet. I googled some resources and assume it's similar to blocktrades in transfer procedures. I really got it because I don't trust centralized exchanges but I prefer my hardware wallet.

I'm about half way through the EOS white paper. Wanted to invest in that ICO but am a US slave (I know about VPN's) because I have to take care of my father.

So presumably "got noplace to go" is because when everyone want's to dump their BTC/ETH, they can't because of the lack of block space / bandwidth issues. Lol...

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Why not buy some EOS on Bitshares?

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You mean after the token sale is over? I needed a VPN just to get in to read the procedure.

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No. Now. There's secondary markets for eos. Even US citizens can buy. In fact, nobody can stop you from buying some.

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I haven't seen that option in Bitshares, perhaps there's a wallet update...

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Bitshares has an OPEN.EOS asset, backed at a 1:1 ratio with presale EOS that will convert to tokens at the end.

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Zoid...let me know if you have any questions on how to use the Bitshares exchange/wallet..we are all here to help the community

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Do you know a good video that shows exchanging from one crypto to another? I don't see a way to change USD into crypto without KYC and AML.

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There is no practical way of going from FIAT to Crypto without KYC & AML (FIAT is the playground of governments and to play on their turf you need to follow their rules).

Here are some youtube channels about bitshares that might be useful.:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChtICzF0ZEhhgoMA8YWhULw

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Seems that the nodes aren't always operating at 100%. Frequent connection problems even though I have high speed internet. Then I decided to update the app, now it hangs with a blank screen. I'm a programmer with over 20 years experience and have written sophisticated apps. I would prefer not to use a web wallet. Also not used to having this much difficulty...

Screen Shot 2017-12-02 at 4.59.26 PM.png

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Well, I managed to get it back up and running. Will look over these videos. Thanks!

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Let us know what your thoughts are after using it zoid..i use the web wallet but others i know download the other...i moved BTC over without any KYC and just bought my coins there..you can also transfer coins they support from other exchanges...cheers friend

i upvote you daily also you

deep thought article.good post

It is always to see that in the end somebody has the same ideas about what is hot or not as you. Especially as a newbie on the market, reassurance is a bit of key. Your article does give me the sense of that I am on the right track though!

When a check https://blocktivity.info/ site over, in the second it was clear to me, what big shift is about to happen.

@stan you rely hit the nail on head!!

You've discussed a lot of important things. I've seen your video completely and learned a lot. I understand many things, thank you again for talking about so good a thing.

Good post, I am a photographer, it passes for my blog and sees my content, I hope that it should be of your taste, you have my vote :D greetings

A very wonderful explanation of this theme by Stan

Aeticel yang sangat hebat brother,saya suka

Can't wait for that moment! Thanks for your advice re: poloniex wallet lockdown. They cleared it up and now I'm on BTS.

In the meantime, I'll take the dumb money from all the newbs entering the crypto kingdom. Hoping BTS goes down even further so I can buy more.

A couple of notes: Graphing on the exchange is rough around the edges. Could really use some analysis tools or at least the ability to carve a line. Also, low volume currently makes it tough to be liquid in anything but BTC/BTS pairs.

Don't leave XEM off that list of likely winners during a currency collapse. Japan is likely to be the first to fall and XEM is designed by them and has major adoption over there. Wish I could see some volume on BTS DEX for XEM right now.

From zero to millonair in a few years, just for paying attention ^.^ That's my personal fortune prediction in all of this :P
BTS + EOS (+ STEEM) = HODL 4 Life!

Let's hope that it goes above $1 dollar. I will be a very happy man.

Going to Chicago (aka Bitshares)!!

Exciting news about the projects moving to the Bitshares blockchain!

Very interesting article.

I like your take on the utility of the different blockchains.

So my question is what is your point? I do not say that to be an ass especially since I own some STEEM and more bitshares. My point is Wall Street doesnt care. The big money went into BTC and ETH in spite of their challenges. Do you think that will stop with the hedge funds going on a buying spree?

I see 2018 as a grand year for them, in terms of price. Ironically, I also see 2018 as being huge for both STEEM and BTS (I am most bullish on those two over everything else).

In the end, I agree with your point...the action will take place on BTS and STEEM and not ETH or BTC. However, big money will still pour into them. Wall Street isnt a financial center...it is a sales/marketing mecca.

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Next year at this time, the number of cryptocurrency users will have gone up by a factor of ten and 90% of those will have been trained by us. That giant sucking sound will be capital flushing out of the levee drainpipe in pursuit of where actual mainstream users wound up.

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That might be true but the challenge you are facing is that everything you talked about here and in all the videos of yours I watched, Wall Street cares about none of that. Hash rate, block size, transmission speed, atomic swaps, none of that matters. There isnt a Wall Street hedge fund manager or broker who is going to even mention them. None of that gets a 7 or 8 figure check out of people.

This is the same debate I had with the bitcoin cash people and why I felt that would never fly. To start, they didnt solve the transmission problem hence the utility aspect isnt there. Secondly, no Wall Street money raiser is going to explain the difference between bitcoin and bitcoin cash. It isnt happening. The easiest path to the check is bitcoin.

Wall Street cares about 3 things:

  1. ROI
  2. Liquidity
  3. How easy is it to sell to the guy with the check.

BTC and ETH hit on all three. There is expected to be over a trillion dollars entering this market next year....do you think the guys doing the buying really have a clue (or even care) about the technical aspects you mention? They do not.

And I saying this expecting STEEM to be $100 by the end of 2019 and BTS over $30.

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Not necessarily...i respectfully disagree...when this market becomes more developted, and more regulated, investors on wall street and avergage well informed middle and upper class investors using their TDAmeritrade and Fidelity accounts will be looking for companies that are well established, that have good business models, that are generating income and have user cases (Bitspark and other companies using the Bitshares blockchain) and that have solid growth patterns and forward earnings. This is when the dust settles and the weak coins and companies will start to fall off. Just my 2 cents

wow @stan really great analysis better than in most articles. i had no idea about the diagram with the transactions and in what spot was steem was. i was totally surprised and amazed. About the bitcoin i don't necessarily agree , i think that it has way more to give in 2018 and i believe it will last for a couple of years more at an increasingly price.

i used to be very active in steemit merely as hobby but cause of work i had to gave up of it for a while but i couldnt end this relationship so i am back and now i am thinking it as more than just a hobby. i would like to ask you what exchangers do you think are the best out there as well as do you have any suggestions about other currencies that you with have future.

from now on i ll start to use blocktivity and i am going to check most of your past posts and future ones. thanks a lot for that valuable infos that you share with us and keep it up it was really a good analysis!

call me biased if you will, though I particularly enjoy @haejin's technical outlook on BTS:

BitShares (BTS) Analysis: How BTS Can Make NEW Multi Millionaires!

Very interesting!