Bitcoin 2020

20/20 Is perfect vision, and it seems fitting that the next Bitcoin halving will be in the year 2020. There is a great countdown timer here:

http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

But what will the price of Bitcoin be in 2020?

Please come back in 2020, and re-read this story. Bitcoin will either be -0- or $15,000 minimum.

Lets start with the hard to swallow scenario first, $0. If Bitcoin keeps forking, fees don't drop, or governments outlaw Bitcoin, it will become worthless. People will move to faster, lower fee, and legal cryptos.

Now, on to the other scenario.

Bitcoin has a current market cap of $75 Billion:

https://coinmarketcap.com/

Gold on the other hand has a market cap of $8 Trillion:

http://onlygold.com/Info/All-The-Gold-In-The-World.asp

Now, don't fool yourself. Gold is nice. You can exchange it in any country for the local currency. You can store it at home, or a bank, and you can even use it as a retirement fund. But, it's really slow, heavy, and hard to get across borders. In fact, when Germany wanted their gold back from the USA, they wouldn't give it back in a timely manner:

https://www.rt.com/business/336405-germany-gold-reserves-return/

So over the next few years, you can expect Cryptocurrencies to take over about 10% of that store of value. As they become safer, faster, and less expensive to use, banks, consumers, and businesses will start using them to store value. Ten percent of $8 Trillion is $800 Billion. Bitcoin currently has about 50% of the crypto market cap. To be safe, assume that in 2020, Bitcoin will have 1/3 of the market cap, giving up some of its current cap to other cryptos. That will leave about $260 Billion for Bitcoin, which is 3.4x it's current cap, giving it a price of $15k/coin. This does not take into account addition coins being generated, but also remember that an estimated equal number of coins have been lost.

Some enthusiasts are predicting $15k this year, or next, but aside from price, the 3 year time frame is more important. In 3 years, the infrastructure of Bitcoin should solidify, allowing the price increase.