I Was Right About Bitcoin Cash, But is it Time to Buy Yet?
My post "When to Buy Bitcoin Cash? - Hold Your Horses!" advised successfully that people should not be buying Bitcoin Cash (BCH) at this current time so early in the introduction of this new "altcoin". When I posted my article the price of BCH had barely crashed under $500.
After seeing a ridiculous high of $740, the price has since calmed down to rest right now near $200. That's a 73% loss in 4 days! - And even less than half of the price when I told investors it was not a good time to buy.
Chart SourceBitcoin Cash in an Altcoin
It's an altcoin right now, even though in the future it could become much more, being as it is it should be treated as an altcoin, that is with an over-hyped ICO or launch, bubble, and inevitable crash, usually in a short period as we just saw. We may also expect a slow fall into the doldrums fo ra while at this point as hope is lost and risky speculators become severely disappointed with their short-term investment. - Not only that, but like I said, the high selling pressure from people who just want their free money turned back into regular bitcoin from the coin split.
A nice unexpected consequence of the fall of Bitcoin Cash seems to be the rise in bitcoin price to an awesome new record near $3,300! I expected a rise in price after the forking drama got over a few hurdles, but not this much this quick!
Chart Source
Something I don't see mentioned is how different this time is for the price of bitcoin after such a crazy event like the btce seizure was, locking up billions of dollars worth of cryptocurrency into purgatory; we usually expect much more downard pressure after such an event, but this time bitcoin's just like "meh" as investors continue to buy.
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How Much is Bitcoin Cash Worth?
To ask this question we need to figure out exactly what Bitcoin Cash even IS. To this purpose I'll seek some help from my friends at CrushTheStreet.com. Joshua Enomoto calls the fork to bitcoin cash a major distraction for bitcoin when the mainstream started covering the event and thus leading more risky investors into the trap when the standard bitcoin apparently was the one that would shine.
Another writer, Eric Grisholm reveals his thoughts on why BCH was even created:
Some claim it's a money grab by ViaBTC, but when it comes down to it, it's taking a different approach to the scaling issue. Rather than relying on SegWit, it increases the block size itself as the potential solution for the massive backlog in transactions. And so far, it has proven to be much more successful than the Bitcoin blockchain in handling this
Read his article for more on his analysis:
https://steemit.com/bitcoincash/@crushthestreet/is-bitcoin-cash-bch-worth-holding
Around this time of Bitcoin Cash coming to exist however, we've seen a nice drop in the backlog of unconfirmed transactions waiting to be processed on the bitcoin blockchain. I can't find the right charts to see which came first, the chicken or the egg (the drop in unconfirmed transactions, or bitcoin cash split).
One major factor that could keep people from wanting any bitcoin cash is that ViaBTC claims that if it doesn't succeed with it's altcoin by August 15th they will discontinue it. This makes the future very uncertain and I think anyone should not even buy Bitcoin Cash until after this date.
SegWit is Coming
Apparently we even have another potential split in bitcoin coming [BIP148]. Here is the interesting but complex schedule of coming development and other bitcoin potential changes:
Bitcoin Magazine: Countdown to SegWit: These are the Key Dates to (Still) Keep an Eye On
Node Summary showing around 13% supporting the BIP148 UASF. Which looks like the fork will happen as these nodes will reject non SegWit (BIP141) nodes. "So far, few miners have publicly indicated they will support the UASF." said the Bitcoin Magazine article above. Looks like Segregated Witness will be locked in according to Coin Dance's Bitcoin Block Details showing "1916 blocks (95%) in the current 2016-block signaling period are required for BIP 141 (Segregated Witness) lock in."
I apologize if I got any facts or interpretation wrong, this fork subject has gotten so complex; please correct me in the comments however.
In Conclusion...Don't Buy Bitcoin Cash Until After August 15
Before that date it's whole future existence is in question
Solid post, I gave you an upvote for the effort even though I disagree with some of your points.
A lot of people call bitcoin cash an altcoin, but the fact is that BCH remains true to the original design by Satoshi.
Of course his design was just the first iteration of this revolutionary tech, but it was simple and it still works. Segwit is still not proven and nobody, not even the Core devs or any other computer scientist or economist alive today, can even remotely predict the long-term effects this "upgrade" will have on Bitcoin's blockchain, economic viability and security.
Segwit opens the door to lots of interesting additions down the line, but it also introduces risks that can't be accurately quantified at the present time! In short: it's a massive gamble!!
I agree it's closer to the original design; I just know that the mainstream (most widely accepted) bitcoin is still not Bitcoin Cash, and it has an uphill battle if it's going to be. Though I know if it doesn't solve the blocksize problem it will fade away and let bitcoin cash takeover. I'm also not that excited because im unfamiliar with ViaBTC, why/how should i trust them?
I think dash has many important features added over bitcoin
Dash has some interesting options, but I have a hard time seeing how monetary authorities will allow a truly anon crypto to thrive. There will be a crackdown at some point.
I think being in a semi-freedom minded state like Arizona could get it a jumpstart. Having a foot in ASU (Arizona State University) is a major benefit. This age of people have the mind and resources to set the trends of the near future.
This you posted four months ago and now it's quite obvios that Bitcoin is broken transaction-wise #WAITCOIN
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@rockwellontherun/from-the-makers-of-bitcoin-waitcoin
In my opinion the original bitcoin is the better option 😜
yes, and definitely for a while, but we have the other key dates and potential changes that will affect this, but looks like we're getting segwit. I'm a little confused on the BIP's and SegWit vs SegWit 2x of what is happening! EEK
Any knowledge would be helpful from anyone with expertise in the development progress or options
The original bitcoin is the technically weakest and most underdeveloped of all top cryptos. It won't survive 3 years. For the short term, It'll hold #1 position and then just die. BTC has 0% chance in mainstream adoption. Dash, NEM, NEO, ETH, Waves... they all can grow so much. I reservedly optimistic on EOS too.
There can only be one bitcoin and the winner is clear there is no place for this altcoin it should just die.
don't be so hasty. Wait till August 15 at least :) - with regular bitcoins blocks currently all full don't you see some opening for a 8MB blocksize to be something some people will choose; 8MB will be more room than SegWit 2x gives right? - I guess we'll have to see in the mid-term how fast the segwit increased blocks fill up
Forget these zealots who never research the tech. These are nothing but fanboy blabbering. Leave them to their echo chambers.
And either way; we welcome all altcoins
Another pump and dump. Move along, nothing to see.
ah I dont see it that way. Big blocks are a benefit and more akin to the original Satoshi plan
You should look into Dash. It supports upto 400MB blocks and has 1.3second confirmation time and some of the lowest Tx costs: https://bitinfocharts.com/dash/
I love dash :) Knew it would rise with such great features. Part of my first EVER* steemit post, on the general crypto game:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@mikeparker/the-crypto-game-is-about-to-change
Read it. It's a really good post. Did you write anything on NEM. It's also really good. And it has some real mainstream appeal too.
Then again I found this disturbing info on a blockchain called ACC. Here is one link: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@ronmamita/blockchain-video-promo-has-creepy-subliminal-message#@ronmamita/
This is not conspiracy theory. I had heard about similar attempts from Doug Casey. Now there is proof on what he was warning about. Hopefully you know who Doug Casey is; that guy and his team is amazing.
NEM I have nor researched. What are it's key benefits?
will checkout that post
I definitely know Doug Casey. Met him in fact.
Wow! That's great. I'd love to meet him in person. NEM's main selling point is using it is like using E-mail (like what Dash Evolution plans to do) and there is Proof of Importance which is far superior to PoS.
https://blog.nem.io/
OH so usernames rather than complex addresses? didn't know that; definitely a 100% needed feature before mainstream adoption
Upvoted as soon as I read the cartoon. Too good! Now for the article.
haha
good to know, thank you :)
I can see the merits of BCC, but if the people behind it are willing to bail after a mere 2 weeks, before the public can even begin to adapt to it, it makes me nervous.
hence we wait till after mid-month ;) good luck trading
Nice
Worth the read ~
thank u ;)
excelente post, también digo que es demasiado pronto para invertir en BCH
gracias