Bill Blain: Bitcoin Futures Could Be "A Clusterf*ck Of Monumental Proportions"
Content adapted from this Zerohedge.com article : Source
Crypto-'currency' or total carnage?
Mike Novogratz doesn't see "quick adoption" of Bitcoin as a currency, preferring to think of it as 'digital gold'.
Perhaps this is one reason why.
Amid its meteroic rise, Bitcoin is now 20 times more volatile than the US Dollar...
As MINT Partners' Bill Blain exclaims, next week sees the improbable launch of Bitcoin futures. This looks like having the potential to be a clusterfck of monumental proportions when it bursts.*
Every bank knows BTC's extraordinary gains are a crowd delusion fuelled by the extraordinary promise of free wealth!
Yet, many will be willing to trade and settle them for their clients – largely retail.
Bitcoin has become the ultimate Klondyke.
Most folk don't have a clue what BTC and the associated Blockchain ledger might be, but everyone knows what the price action has been.
Where that price is going is clouded by a lack of clarity on the technological nuances, distorted by Libertarian/Geek monetary gobbledy-gook, confused by a plethora of me-too coin offerings, speculators who see the chance of a quick buck, and investors scared they are missing out.
I've spent most of this week learning more and more about the limitations of Blockchain and two things are crystal clear – it doesn't work, and it's an evolutionary dead end that nimbler cryptocurrencies will take the niche of. But I still don't understand why we need them at all?
If its central banks you object to, let's have a private cryptocurrency based on gold, or oil, or something else tangible… but based on some computer babble? Not for me.
On the other hand, the long-term possibilities that BTC exploits in terms of Blockchain distributed ledgers are very real. Blockchain applications are going to utterly change finance..
computer babble...
LOL I love when someone looks at bitcoin (or any crypto) for a week and then decides he/she knows best. It is absolutely astounding.
Since when did investors have to understand something to invest in it. In fact, when do big investors have to understand something to invest in it. Many wealthy people lost money on MBS...obviously they had no clue what they were buying.
At least with crypto, the information is out there if anyone cares to look.
The advantage to crypto is that it is NOT private you nitwit.
Based on computer babble? How do you think the U.S. Dollar works? All money is digital today, Bitcoin is simply a more secure version that has no central authority who can utterly abuse the printing and distribution of it.
The value of Bitcoin is not only that of a store of value (which is already a compelling fact)... but its a value of technology. "the computer babble" is the same babble the also secures the entire internet. Cryptography has existed for decades, while Bitcoin may not last forever (though I don't see a reason for it not to), the "babble" will always be evolving and interleaving itself into our everyday lives.
So he is openly admitting he has no understanding about what the blockchain is and what computers do on it?
I am surprised this article was picked up by zerohedge.com. They usually have higher standards over there.
Can we expect Martha Stewart to be interviewed about EOS?
Bill Blaine or John McAfee? Who do you believe?
Not saying Bitcoin is the end all. It does have its challenges. That said, this guy makes it like it is nothing. Probably is paid by a banker.
he is just an oldbug...
🙏🏽
Ha! Whoever wrote that doesn’t know shit about blockchain
What do you mean?
He spent an entire week studying it. How can you question that?
Evidently slow of study.
LOL... couldn't agree more. He's got many things inaccurate in the article.. Can tell it's pure speculation of things that he doesn't understand, made evident by the statement "computer babble".
I have a feeling that the Futures price and underlying BTC price could be sharply different, depending on the market provider and their account size it could be a chess war....
I really agree. Peoplee see "lambo party" and "big money bro" but crypto-market is at a very crytical point.
Considering that as bitcoin grows we are observing in last days
increasing volatilityhigher fees (fees are calculated in BTC, so if btc goes to the moon fees grow really a lot)
I
The future will be negotiated on a regulated and opern market and probably CME volumes will be really bigger than Exchange volumes. Also 10 times the exchamge volumes. So, in the market, people will psicologically be influenced more by future than by real BTC. This is normal for every real asset that has a negotiated future. Wen you open television and they talk about oil price, they don't say "oil at the saudi oil camp is...." but they say "future's prices are...". So with CME futures some big market shocks can be trasmitted to Bitcoin.
Then, banks and great investors will easily be able to short bitcoin shorting the future. This will greatly affect the BTC market, because on CME will be moved really huge volumes. Not bilions or milions, trilions of daily volume. This is the enormous liquidity that is moved with CME, and this is what will enter in BTC future market.
CME futures will be dominated by trading volumes of great investors and bank, also with hyper-tecnologic methods like High Frequency Trading (you can find some valuable info at https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/high-frequency-trading.asp), as every traditional financiary market. We will see great games, includind probably flash crashes on future.
So, pay a lot of attention. Surprises are really, really possible.
cryptos are the future of globe...
At the moment fiat values via traditional payment systems (like VISA) support hundreds of milions of transactions.
Bitcoin network over 300-350k start slowing down and crashing.
So, until it will scale (but maybe? For Lightnin Netwotk we will have to wait at least until end of 2018. Doubling blocksize to gain sone time was no adopted...) bitcoin is the future of nothi g and none, except from speculators.
By the other hand, other crypto (like for example Litecoin, Bitcoin cash, or event very different things like the centralised Ripple or IOTA) are better than bitcoin for number of sustainable advantage and so their market will greatly grow
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I can hear the herd coming! Sisters, buddies and guys in the pub are all asking me how to buy btc. Wait till there all in then we can see the true price:)
With Bitcoin, all young people should stop listening to anyone over 40 years old (except for me).
Bitcoin solves many problems and it's future value depends on how many people wish to be participants in that solving.
For bank or government to compete in Bitcoin's problem solving capabilities (and therefore taking market share away from BTC) they would have to provide a non inflationary unit of exchange - with no barriers to entry for anyone in the world - with friction less near zero transfer costs - and complete freedom for users to have private or public status.
And then throw as many developers and engineers to keep their protocol ahead of the thousands of people around the world already developing BTC.
And then they have the impossible task of reproducing BTC's Network Effect - already 8 years ahead - and international in reach. All that from a single nation confinement.
Its true .