Bitcoin is trying to decide which path to follow.
I pointed out 2 possible scenarios in my last update. As you know, bitcoin followed the 2nd, more bearish scenario. This resulted in another failed wave, followed by another ABC correction. As I pointed out before, this puts Bitcoin in a WXYXZ pattern.
If you missed my last update, you can view it here for a better understanding of the situation: https://steemit.com/c/@workin2005/bitcoin-continues-to-struggle-the-next-24-hours-may-be-crucial
As of now, we can count this 2 different ways. This first could be counted as a completed ABC correction and the end of the WXYXZ pattern. If this count is correct, bitcoin is currently in an impulse wave up with a target just above $10,000. This bullish scenario may play out like this:
A more bearish scenario is also possible. We could count the current wave up as wave B. This would still require one more wave down to complete the ABC correction and the WXYXZ pattern. If this is correct, it may play out like this:
Looking at the 1 hour RSI, it seems an ascending support line is forming. This may be a good indication as to which path bitcoin will take. If the support breaks, I would expect the bearish scenario. If it holds, the bullish scenario is more likely.
Those of you who follow me know I’ve been pointing out a squeezing of the histogram (on the 4 hour RSI) for a few weeks now. It continues to get squeezed tighter and tighter. As it approaches the apex, a breakout becomes more likely.
Finally, we can’t ignore the fundamental side of the market right now. In my opinion, the fear of the SEC possibly labeling Ethereum a security is preventing many people from investing. While I do NOT believe ETH will be labeled a security, I’d like to see the SEC make a formal statement one way or the other. Hopefully we’ll get some regulatory clarity soon. Once we do, I think the market may enter a massive bull run that will make 2017 look like nothing.
BIAS:
Short-term: Neutral
Longterm: Very Bullish
I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Thanks for stopping by. I wish you great success!
If you found this post informative, please:
Disclaimer: I am NOT a financial advisor and this is NOT financial advice. Please always do your own research and invest responsibly.
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As @stocksncrypto noted in his post.
So, I'm still for a more Bearish trend short term, that could end this wait and start a Bullish trend. That could happened right after the SEC issues and Consensus.
The crossing of the MACD on the daily chart is a bearish indication. There are also a few other bearish indicators. One of them is the histogram slightly poking out of the wedge on the 4 hr chart. Arrow points to it here:
Another is the setup of the 8, 21 and 55 day EMA. As I pointed out in an earlier post, a bear market can be forecast on the 4 hour chart when the 55 day EMA is on top, the 21 day in the middle and the 8 day on the bottom. Unfortunately, that just happened late last night:
If you’re unfamiliar with EMA’s, refer to my post here: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@workin2005/simple-effective-strategy-to-buying-and-selling-market-trends
These are the reasons I outlined my bearish scenario above which has bitcoin dropping to $8,900. Personally, I’m not trading right now. There’s too much uncertainty in the market.
Great analysis, as usual. The uncertainty due to the SEC is holding back the market and stifling innovation. Like you said, hopefully they'll issue a statement soon.
Thanks...and you’re exactly right. There’s no reason the SEC should take this long or make it this complicated. Government runs at a snails pace.
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